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Utilities sector

PGD

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Phân phối khí thấp áp dầu khí Việt Nam
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
23.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
31.255
Current
23.700
Gap
+31.9%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend4.78%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.500
Payout ratio65.2%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.500
Base Growth
4.78%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
31.255
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PGD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

40
Weak
Accrual Quality
76
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
25
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.03
Moderate
DSRI
0.925
GMI
1.204
AQI
1.193
SGI
1.047
DEPI
0.983
SGAI
0.990
TATA
0.061
LVGI
0.966

PGD's Beneish M-Score of -2.0263 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 40.2/100, particularly the cash conversion metric at 0.0/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 40.2/100 indicates weak earnings quality, especially with cash conversion at 0.0/100, suggesting potential issues with cash flow relative to reported earnings.
  • High institutional ownership concentration with Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam holding 50.5%, which may lead to governance risks and lack of minority shareholder protection.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.0263 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, indicating some level of financial integrity.
  • Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable, which is a positive sign for revenue collection.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership among a few institutions, particularly the 50.5% held by Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam, poses risks related to governance and potential conflicts of interest, which could disadvantage minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor PGD's cash flow performance and earnings quality metrics, considering a cautious approach until improvements in cash conversion and overall earnings quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.53
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.91
Negative
Composite
37
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-15.1%
Volatility
21.5%
Max Drawdown
-22.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.14P/E
P/B1.61
P/S0.21
ROE11.4%
ROA4.6%
EPS1700.55
BVPS14904.15
Gross Margin5.8%
Net Margin1.5%
D/E1.42
Current Ratio1.53
Rev Growth4.7%
Profit Growth-32.4%
EV/EBITDA5.93
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
99.0M
Charter Capital
990.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PGD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam
Inst
50.5%
50.0 trieu
Tokyo Gas Asia Pte. Ltd.
Inst
25.0%
24.7 trieu
Saibu Gas Co., Ltd.
Inst
21.0%
20.8 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SBS
Inst
2.6%
2.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Thương Mại Tổng Hợp Tỉnh Bà Rịa-vũng Tàu
Inst
0.4%
318.980
Nguyễn Văn Sơn
Indiv
0.2%
92.987
nguyen-nhu-song
Indiv
0.1%
63.248
Board & Management
Nguyễn Quang Huy
Phó Giám đốc
Wataru Fujisaki
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Trung Chính
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đinh Ngọc Huy
Phó Giám đốc
Phạm Thị Thu Hà
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thanh Nam
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Trần Huỳnh Thanh Tú
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đặng Thị Hồng Yến
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Phạm Hồng Minh
Phó Giám đốc
Lê Minh Hải
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thục Quyên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Quốc Vương
Kế toán trưởng
Lê Bá Khánh Anh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Thị Ái Vân
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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