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Utilities sector

CNG

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần CNG Việt Nam
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
24.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
25.434
Current
24.100
Gap
+5.5%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend5.27%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.200
Payout ratio46.8%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.200
Base Growth
5.27%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
25.434
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CNG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

54
Fair
Accrual Quality
97
Cash Conversion
63
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
11
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.33
High Risk
DSRI
1.162
GMI
1.047
AQI
2.800
SGI
1.331
DEPI
1.003
SGAI
1.208
TATA
0.009
LVGI
1.171

CNG exhibits a moderate risk profile with a Beneish M-Score of -1.3345, indicating potential earnings manipulation is unlikely. However, the earnings quality score of 54.0/100, particularly low revenue quality, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 54.0/100, with a revenue quality score of 0.0/100, indicating significant concerns over the reliability of revenue recognition.
  • SGI of 1.3310 suggests aggressive growth strategies that may not be supported by actual cash flows.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.3345, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting that earnings manipulation is unlikely.
  • High accrual score of 96.5/100 indicates strong earnings management practices in terms of accruals.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant concentration with Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam holding 56.0%, which could lead to potential governance issues and lack of minority shareholder protection.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor CNG's revenue recognition practices and assess the sustainability of its growth. Consider a cautious approach until further clarity on earnings quality and cash flow generation is established.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
3.67
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.94
Negative
Composite
41
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-12.1%
Volatility
32.3%
Max Drawdown
-23.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
12.33P/E
P/B1.33
P/S0.18
ROE10.8%
ROA4.4%
EPS1954.82
BVPS18127.18
Gross Margin7.7%
Net Margin1.5%
D/E1.70
Current Ratio1.34
Rev Growth33.1%
Profit Growth-24.6%
EV/EBITDA4.92
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
35.1M
Charter Capital
351.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CNG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam
Inst
56.0%
19.7 trieu
Utilico Emerging Markets Limited
Inst
5.0%
1.3 trieu
america limited liability company
Inst
4.8%
1.7 trieu
Samarang Ucits - Samarang Asian Prosperity
Inst
4.8%
1.3 trieu
Quỹ Đầu tư Trái phiếu Bảo Việt
Inst
0.5%
125.000
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Triển vọng Bảo Việt
Inst
0.5%
125.000
Đặng Văn Vĩnh
Indiv
0.2%
67.006
Board & Management
Ngô Thị Nam
Giám đốc Tài chính
Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng
Kế toán trưởng
Phan Thị Kim Thoa
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Văn Thực
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Thị Thu Giang
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Trương Mạnh Thắng
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Nguyên Vũ
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Quang Bá
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Hải
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hữu Thắng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Văn Đản
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Thị Thanh Huyền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Võ Thị Thu Sương
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
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