PVG

Utilities

Công ty Cổ phần Kinh doanh LPG Việt Nam

Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT

6.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

5.657

Current

6.600

Gap

-14.3%

ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility

Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group

Model3-Stage DDM

Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

Cost of Equity (Ke)

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.600

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

8.70%

Growth Estimate

fundamental equity blend2.00%

Model Inputs

DPS source:Actual dividends

DPS→300

Payout ratio→125.6%

Valuation

Dividends Per Share

300

Base Growth

2.00%

Cost of Equity

8.70%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

DDM Value

5.657

Value Decomposition

26%

74%

Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PVG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.90

Moderate

DSRI

1.256

GMI

1.249

AQI

0.992

SGI

1.261

DEPI

0.885

SGAI

0.798

TATA

-0.011

LVGI

0.957

PVG exhibits several red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.8993, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 60.2 suggests moderate reliability in cash conversion and receivables management.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.8993 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
DSRI of 1.2563 suggests potential issues with inventory management, as it is above 1.0.
SGI of 1.2608 indicates aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.

Positive Signals

Earnings quality score of 60.2/100 reflects strong cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100).
Accrual quality score of 95.6/100 suggests that the company is generating earnings that are closely aligned with cash flows.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam (51.3%) indicates a strong institutional presence, which can provide stability but may also lead to governance issues typical in state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor PVG's earnings reports for signs of manipulation and consider a cautious approach due to elevated risk indicators, while also recognizing the strengths in cash flow management.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

4.61

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.30

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+0.0%

Volatility

50.4%

Max Drawdown

-30.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

18.24P/E

P/B0.53

P/S0.04

ROE2.9%

ROA0.9%

EPS367.23

BVPS12638.80

Gross Margin6.8%

Net Margin0.2%

D/E2.03

Current Ratio1.20

Rev Growth26.1%

Profit Growth14.8%

EV/EBITDA5.98

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

40.0M

Charter Capital

400.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt

Industry (ICB L3)

Nước & Khí đốt

Sub-industry

Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PVG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Khí Việt Nam

Inst

51.3%

20.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Dầu khí

Inst

4.3%

1.2 trieu

Trịnh Văn Minh

Indiv

0.2%

50.000

Board & Management

Trần Thị Kim Phượng

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Thị Thu Hằng

Phó Giám đốc

Trần Anh Khoa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đoàn Trúc Lâm

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Diệu Thúy

Kế toán trưởng

Tạ Quốc Anh

Phó Giám đốc

Trần Thị Hạnh Thục

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thanh Bình

Hội đồng quản trị/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Việt Anh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Cao Hưng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hải Long

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Top connections

CNG56.0%PVB52.9%PGD51.3%PGS51.3%SSB51.3%PAI11.8%PXA4.3%PDC4.3%PWA4.3%AAA4.3%GSP4.3%PPY4.3%

Computed 12/04/2026