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Utilities sector

PGV

Utilities
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 3 - Công ty Cổ phần
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
24.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
27.343
Current
24.300
Gap
+12.5%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.450
Payout ratio126.0%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.450
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
27.343
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PGV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

58
Fair
Accrual Quality
97
Cash Conversion
91
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.61
Low Risk
DSRI
1.144
GMI
0.460
AQI
0.904
SGI
1.071
DEPI
0.934
SGAI
0.940
TATA
-0.007
LVGI
0.917

PGV's Beneish M-Score of -2.6114 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 57.5/100, particularly the zero scores in revenue and margin quality, raises concerns about the sustainability of its earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 57.5/100 indicates potential issues, especially with revenue and margin quality both at 0.0/100.
  • DSRI at 1.1438 suggests that accounts receivable are growing faster than revenue, which could indicate revenue recognition issues.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.6114 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • High accrual score of 97.2/100 indicates strong earnings quality in terms of accruals.
Ownership Risk

With 99.2% ownership by Tập đoàn Điện lực Việt Nam, PGV is highly controlled by a state-owned enterprise, which may limit minority shareholder influence and raise concerns about transparency and governance.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor PGV's revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of high ownership concentration. A thorough review of financial statements and cash flow metrics is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
1.67
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.68
Positive
Composite
60
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+23.5%
Volatility
30.7%
Max Drawdown
-14.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.38P/E
P/B1.55
P/S0.63
ROE23.2%
ROA6.7%
EPS3284.82
BVPS15618.64
Gross Margin15.9%
Net Margin8.5%
D/E2.08
Current Ratio1.45
Rev Growth7.1%
Profit Growth520.1%
EV/EBITDA4.96
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
1123.5M
Charter Capital
11234.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PGV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Điện lực Việt Nam
Inst
99.2%
1.1 ty
Board & Management
Đinh Quốc Lâm
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Cao Minh Trung
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thanh Trùng Dương
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Văn Danh
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Võ Minh Thắng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Thanh Xuân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hương
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trương Quốc Phúc
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Phương Thảo
Kế toán trưởng
Đậu Đức Chiến
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Hùng Minh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Minh Khoa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Mộng Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Hải Ngọc
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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