HBD

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Bao bì PP Bình Dương

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

19.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

15.022

Current

19.300

Gap

-22.2%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

94.87%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

5.13%

WACC

11.90%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

16.337

50%DCF Value

13.707

Blended Intrinsic

15.022

Value Decomposition

42%

58%

Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HBD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.32

Moderate

DSRI

0.786

GMI

0.995

AQI

0.914

SGI

1.082

DEPI

1.000

SGAI

0.766

TATA

0.073

LVGI

1.190

The Beneish M-Score of -2.3213 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 58.8 suggests some concerns, particularly with cash conversion and revenue recognition, which could signal potential risks in financial reporting.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 58.8/100 indicates moderate concerns, particularly a low cash conversion score of 35.0/100.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raises significant concerns about the reliability of reported revenues.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.3213 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top four shareholders holding 63.5% of shares, poses a risk of potential conflicts of interest and governance issues, which can affect minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and revenue recognition practices while considering a cautious approach to investment due to the elevated risks associated with ownership concentration and earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

6.58

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.06

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+36.8%

Volatility

81.9%

Max Drawdown

-39.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

7.77P/E

P/B1.07

P/S8.73

ROE14.2%

ROA13.4%

EPS2444.50

BVPS17694.46

Gross Margin76.4%

Net Margin112.4%

D/E0.07

Current Ratio12.56

Rev Growth8.2%

Profit Growth16.4%

EV/EBITDA11.14

Div Yield6.8%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.0M

Charter Capital

20.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HBD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Mai Văn Bình

Indiv

20.0%

382.436

Lê Kim Phượng

Indiv

17.3%

329.900

Trần Thị Thanh Hương

Indiv

16.4%

313.056

Phạm Duy Dần

Indiv

9.8%

140.010

Nguyễn Thúy Hiền

Indiv

8.0%

152.000

Mai Hương

Indiv

7.1%

135.595

Mai Thị Thanh Hà

Indiv

6.4%

123.000

Phạm Thị Thưởng

Indiv

3.8%

71.746

nguyen-thi-hai-yen

Indiv

2.9%

55.430

Trần Trường Giang

Indiv

2.2%

41.200

Trần Văn Hồng

Indiv

1.6%

30.386

Chu Thị Hải Anh

Indiv

1.3%

24.000

Cao Thị Lan

Indiv

1.2%

17.000

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hường

Indiv

0.7%

13.300

Dương Đức Hùng

Indiv

0.7%

12.400

Trần Văn An

Indiv

0.5%

10.000

Bùi Tố Quý Dương

Indiv

0.4%

8.400

Bùi Tố Định

Indiv

0.2%

3.040

Board & Management

Mai Văn Bình20.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Thanh Hương16.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thúy Hiền8.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Hương7.1%

Giám đốc điều hành/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Thị Thanh Hà6.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc Tài chính/Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Hải Yến2.9%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Văn Hồng1.6%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hương0.7%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Trung Quyết

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Hải Anh

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Top connections

HPB11 links VCT24.0%PIT20.0%HTC17.3%TMX17.3%VST17.3%CCC16.4%VNA16.4%PTI16.4%S9910.4%BLF8.9%HQC8.4%

Computed 12/04/2026