VPG

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Thương mại Xuất nhập khẩu Việt Phát

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Khai khoángCT

4.320

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

4.895

Current

4.320

Gap

+13.3%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→187.66B

Fair EV/EBITDA→11.4x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

187.66B

Fair EV/EBITDA

11.4x

Net Debt

1712.38B

Equity Value

4.895

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VPG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-0.70

High Risk

DSRI

0.582

GMI

1.555

AQI

0.363

SGI

2.565

DEPI

5.552

SGAI

0.755

TATA

0.037

LVGI

1.024

VPG exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -0.7003, indicating a relatively low risk of manipulation. However, the high SGI of 2.5651 and low earnings quality score of 50.1/100 raise significant red flags regarding growth sustainability and earnings reliability.

Red Flags

SGI of 2.5651 indicates aggressive growth that may not be supported by underlying fundamentals.
Earnings Quality Score of 50.1/100 suggests potential issues with revenue recognition and cash flow conversion.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 0.5816 indicates that accounts receivable are growing at a slower rate than sales, which is a positive sign for cash flow management.
High eq_receivables score of 100.0/100 reflects strong management of receivables, indicating effective collection practices.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated with the largest shareholder holding 25.8%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, particularly in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VPG's growth metrics and earnings quality, considering a cautious approach to investment until clearer signals of sustainable growth and improved earnings reliability are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.63

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-2.27

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-53.1%

Volatility

45.4%

Max Drawdown

-65.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

-0.72P/E

P/B0.46

P/S0.04

ROE-48.2%

ROA-10.3%

EPS-6863.15

BVPS10801.59

Gross Margin-0.3%

Net Margin-4.9%

D/E2.32

Current Ratio1.50

Rev Growth-23.2%

Profit Growth-714.4%

EV/EBITDA-7.20

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

88.4M

Charter Capital

884.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Khai khoáng

Sub-industry

Khai khoáng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VPG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Văn Bính

Indiv

25.8%

22.8 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Indiv

4.7%

1.3 trieu

Lê Thị Thanh Lệ

Indiv

4.5%

4.0 trieu

nguyen-van-duc

Indiv

3.4%

3.0 trieu

Mai Quang Hợp

Indiv

1.0%

264.500

Trần Thị Hường

Indiv

0.5%

100.000

Ngô Thị Minh Lụa

Indiv

0.3%

256.443

Lê Đình Điều

Indiv

0.1%

110.901

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Bình25.8%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Thanh Lệ4.5%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Đức3.4%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Mai Hoa

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Quang Khải

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Hoàng Trung Kiên

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Trần Thị Vân

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Phạm Thị Thu Trang

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Khôi

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập/Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Top connections

ECO25.8%CAN25.8%LKW25.8%PSC25.8%QTC25.8%SDU25.8%DNW25.8%POV25.8%MTA25.8%PXT25.8%DXV25.8%LM825.8%

Computed 12/04/2026