VPI

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Bất động sản Văn Phú

Bất động sảnCT

57.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

10.255

Current

57.500

Gap

-82.2%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

37.26%

Kd(1-t)

6.34%

D/(D+E)

62.74%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

20.510

60%DCF Value

-14.903

Blended Intrinsic

10.255

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VPI

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.89

Low Risk

DSRI

1.051

GMI

0.436

AQI

0.828

SGI

1.056

DEPI

0.921

SGAI

2.003

TATA

0.021

LVGI

1.152

VPI exhibits several concerning indicators suggesting potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.8852, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the company shows some strengths in accrual quality, the overall earnings quality score of 37.2/100 raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.8852 indicates potential earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 37.2/100, with particularly low scores in cash conversion (18.7/100) and receivables (0.0/100), suggesting issues in revenue recognition and cash flow.

Positive Signals

Accrual quality score of 91.8/100 indicates that the company's reported earnings are largely based on actual cash flows, which is a positive signal amidst other concerns.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is relatively concentrated, with the top three shareholders holding over 52% of the company. This concentration could lead to governance risks, particularly if decisions favor major shareholders over minority interests.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on VPI, particularly focusing on cash flow and revenue recognition practices. Monitoring future earnings reports for consistency with cash flows will be critical.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.01

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.25

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-1.7%

Volatility

26.9%

Max Drawdown

-18.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

48.91P/E

P/B3.66

P/S9.58

ROE7.8%

ROA3.0%

EPS1226.68

BVPS16407.70

Gross Margin38.7%

Net Margin19.6%

D/E1.68

Current Ratio2.54

Rev Growth5.6%

Profit Growth19.5%

EV/EBITDA48.61

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

320.0M

Charter Capital

3200.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VPI — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tô Như Toàn

Indiv

22.7%

72.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư THG Holdings

Inst

21.3%

68.1 trieu

VIAC (No.1) Limited Partnership

Inst

8.8%

28.1 trieu

Nguyễn Ngọc Trung

Indiv

4.9%

10.9 trieu

Tô Như Thắng

Indiv

2.7%

8.7 trieu

Đào Thị Hồng Hạnh

Indiv

2.3%

7.3 trieu

Lê Châu Giang

Indiv

2.3%

7.3 trieu

Phạm Hồng Châu

Indiv

0.5%

1.7 trieu

Board & Management

Tô Như Toàn22.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Tô Như Thắng2.7%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Hồng Châu0.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Diệu Tú

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Thị Thanh Phương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Trịnh Thị Hồng Nhung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Mỹ Yến

Kế toán trưởng/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Văn Vụ

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Triệu Hữu Đại

Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Thu Trà

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Thị Hồng Xiêm

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Nguyễn Thu Hằng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

CHU ĐỨC LƯỢNG

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trịnh Thanh Hải

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập/Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Top connections

SII10.9%CII8.8%BID8.8%ITD6.3%BOT5.0%DTE4.9%VGG4.9%SJ14.9%TTE4.9%HHC4.5%NDF3.4%HIO2.5%

Computed 12/04/2026