TDH

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Nhà Thủ Đức

Bất động sảnCT

3.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

5.303

Current

3.800

Gap

+39.6%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

26.76%

Kd(1-t)

7.96%

D/(D+E)

73.24%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

1.311

60%DCF Value

7.965

Blended Intrinsic

5.303

Value Decomposition

26%

74%

Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TDH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.06

High Risk

DSRI

0.303

GMI

1.775

AQI

0.992

SGI

2.619

DEPI

1.382

SGAI

0.036

TATA

0.202

LVGI

0.816

TDH exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -0.0569, well above the manipulation threshold. The earnings quality score of 28.2/100, especially the cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises significant red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -0.0569 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 28.2/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in converting earnings into cash.
SGI of 2.6185 indicates excessive revenue growth that may not be sustainable or backed by actual cash flows.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests strong management of accounts receivable, indicating that the company is efficient in collecting payments.
Low DSRI of 0.3031 indicates that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales, which is a positive sign for operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is relatively fragmented with no single shareholder holding a majority stake, which may reduce the risk of concentrated control but could also lead to governance challenges.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in TDH, focusing on cash flow sustainability and potential earnings quality improvements.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

-1.21

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.56

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+44.8%

Volatility

27.6%

Max Drawdown

-30.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

3.87P/E

P/B2.37

P/S3.34

ROE88.0%

ROA16.1%

EPS981.51

BVPS1606.71

Gross Margin24.1%

Net Margin86.2%

D/E2.74

Current Ratio0.92

Rev Growth165.6%

Profit Growth136.3%

EV/EBITDA120.40

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

112.7M

Charter Capital

1126.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TDH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund

Inst

6.2%

2.6 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu tư Việt Thái Sơn

Inst

6.1%

3.8 trieu

Deutsche Bank AG & Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Ltd.

Inst

6.0%

2.5 trieu

Công ty Đầu tư Tài chính Nhà nước Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

Inst

6.0%

6.8 trieu

Vietnam Equity Holding

Inst

4.6%

3.7 trieu

Red River Holding

Inst

4.5%

1.9 trieu

J.P. Morgan Securities Plc

Inst

3.7%

2.3 trieu

PXP Vietnam Emerging Equity Fund

Inst

3.4%

3.2 trieu

Citgroup Global Markets Limited

Inst

2.9%

1.2 trieu

Citigroup Global Market Ltd

Inst

2.8%

1.2 trieu

Grinling International Limited

Inst

2.7%

1.1 trieu

Yurie Vietnam Securities Investment Trust

Inst

2.7%

2.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần DBA-Rhino

Inst

2.6%

1.8 trieu

Lê Ngọc Xuân

Indiv

1.4%

1.6 trieu

Lê Chí Hiếu

Indiv

1.3%

1.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Hạ tầng Công nghiệp và SXKD Dệt may Việt Nam

Inst

1.3%

539.250

Trần Quang Nghị

Indiv

1.2%

968.719

Công ty Cổ phần Dịch vụ tổng hợp Sài Gòn

Inst

0.7%

305.250

Trần Đình Vọng

Indiv

0.5%

228.800

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Việt Nam

Inst

0.5%

227.355

nguyen-khac-son

Indiv

0.4%

408.961

VŨ HẢI QUÂN

Indiv

0.4%

460.200

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phước Long

Inst

0.4%

165.000

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch

Inst

0.4%

272.253

Yurie Vietnam Smart Accumulated Target Return Fund

Inst

0.3%

248.170

Phạm Thị Xuân Lan

Indiv

0.1%

126.964

Board & Management

Lê Chí Hiếu1.3%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Thái Bằng Âu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Quang Nhường

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Thường trực

Thái Duy Phương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Thanh Trúc

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Ngọc Trường Chinh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Lữ Minh Sơn

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Vũ Bảo Hoàng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Đinh Thành Lê

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

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Computed 12/04/2026