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Construction sector

TSA

Construction
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Xây Lắp Trường Sơn
Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT
15.950
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Fairly Valued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
15.262
Current
15.950
Gap
-4.3%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTXây dựng và Vật liệuConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
63.71%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.30%
x
D/(D+E)
36.29%
=
WACC
10.06%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
14.896
50%DCF Value
15.628
Blended Intrinsic
15.262
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TSA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

77
Good
Accrual Quality
82
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
77
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.42
Moderate
DSRI
1.040
GMI
0.957
AQI
1.444
SGI
1.093
DEPI
0.907
SGAI
1.090
TATA
-0.046
LVGI
0.926

TSA exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.4218, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the company's earnings quality metrics reveal concerning aspects, particularly a zero score in revenue quality, which could signal potential issues in revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 76.9/100 is decent, but a revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about the reliability of reported revenues.
  • The DSRI of 1.0399 is slightly above 1, suggesting a potential increase in receivables relative to sales, which could indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • The cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings, suggesting that the company is effectively converting its profits into cash.
  • The GMI of 0.9567 indicates a decrease in gross margin, which, while a red flag in some contexts, may reflect a competitive pricing strategy rather than manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are individuals with significant stakes, with the largest holding at 20%. This concentrated ownership could lead to governance risks, particularly if decisions favor personal interests over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TSA's revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of its ownership structure. A thorough review of financial statements and potential engagement with management may be warranted to address concerns over revenue quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.09
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.10
Excellent
Composite
72
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+47.6%
Volatility
42.1%
Max Drawdown
-10.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
23.46P/E
P/B1.47
P/S0.90
ROE6.6%
ROA4.1%
EPS679.88
BVPS10868.16
Gross Margin9.5%
Net Margin3.9%
D/E0.55
Current Ratio1.95
Rev Growth9.2%
Profit Growth16.7%
EV/EBITDA9.44
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
40.4M
Charter Capital
404.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TSA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Văn Trường
Indiv
20.0%
8.1 trieu
Hoàng Kim Huế
Indiv
10.0%
4.0 trieu
nguyen-dieu-linh
Indiv
5.0%
2.0 trieu
Đặng Văn Thuyết
Indiv
2.7%
1.1 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Thoả
Indiv
2.0%
813.062
Nguyễn Xuân Chính
Indiv
1.8%
735.000
Hoàng Thị Thảo
Indiv
1.7%
668.456
Đặng Trần An
Indiv
0.3%
105.000
Đoàn Văn Thành
Indiv
0.2%
73.500
Lê Sơn Tùng
Indiv
0.2%
67.200
Đặng Thị Chinh
Indiv
0.1%
40.425
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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