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Cyclicals sector

L62

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Lilama 69 - 2
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT
2.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
0
Current
2.300
Gap
-100.0%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Equity Value
BVPS
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — L62

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

10
Poor
Accrual Quality
0
Cash Conversion
1
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
100

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2023

2.24
High Risk
DSRI
1.146
GMI
12.591
AQI
0.667
SGI
0.671
DEPI
0.000
SGAI
1.039
TATA
-0.195
LVGI
1.211

L62 exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 2.2448, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The company's earnings quality score of 22.3/100 further highlights concerns regarding its financial integrity and cash conversion capabilities.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 2.2448 indicates likely earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 22.3/100 suggests poor earnings quality, particularly with an eq_cash_conv of 6.2/100 and eq_receivables of 0.0/100.
Positive Signals
  • Revenue quality is strong with an eq_revenue score of 100.0/100, indicating that reported revenues are not inflated.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top five shareholders holding over 66% of the company, raises concerns about potential governance issues and lack of minority shareholder protection.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in L62, focusing on the company's financial reporting practices and governance structures.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
-2.85
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.92
Negative
Composite
5
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-26.3%
Volatility
160.1%
Max Drawdown
-69.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
-0.13P/E
P/B0.00
P/S0.59
ROE148.7%
ROA-43.0%
EPS-21738.85
BVPS0.00
Gross Margin-157.1%
Net Margin-440.4%
D/E-2.66
Current Ratio0.79
Rev Growth-48.9%
Profit Growth-75.8%
EV/EBITDA-2.97
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
8.3M
Charter Capital
83.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Công nghiệp nặng
Sub-industry
Máy công nghiệp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for L62 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Vũ Kế Chương
Indiv
17.8%
1.5 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Kỳ
Indiv
14.3%
1.2 trieu
Vũ Khắc Nhiềm
Indiv
8.4%
698.529
Hoàng Sỹ Khang
Indiv
8.4%
698.529
Trần Xuân Trường
Indiv
7.9%
654.983
Hoàng Trung Kiên
Indiv
6.3%
519.835
Bùi Ngọc Tiến
Indiv
3.0%
252.547
Nguyễn Hữu Hòa
Indiv
1.3%
104.144
Lê Cao Bằng
Indiv
0.9%
54.000
Nguyễn Quang Thi
Indiv
0.4%
30.000
Nguyễn Đức Cường
Indiv
0.2%
20.000
Trương Đức Thành
Indiv
0.2%
15.000
Lê Thị Minh
Indiv
0.2%
14.297
Vũ Xuân Dũng
Indiv
0.1%
11.865
Đỗ Tiến Thành
Indiv
0.1%
10.000
Board & Management
Vũ Kế Chương17.8%
Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Xuân Trường7.9%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Đức Thành0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Minh0.2%
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Vũ Xuân Dũng0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Tiến Thành0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Thị Ngà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Giám Hiệu
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Quang Vinh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phùng Phương Linh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Trung Hiếu
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Tô Phi Sơn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Hường
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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