TMG

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Kim loại màu Thái Nguyên - Vimico

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Kim loạiCT

65.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Fairly Valued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

65.000

Current

65.000

Gap

+0.0%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→150.22B

Fair EV/EBITDA→7.5x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

150.22B

Fair EV/EBITDA

7.5x

Net Debt

-51.04B

Equity Value

65.000

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TMG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.03

Moderate

DSRI

1.739

GMI

0.984

AQI

0.846

SGI

1.084

DEPI

1.106

SGAI

0.922

TATA

-0.055

LVGI

1.015

TMG exhibits several concerning indicators, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.0306, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation but still raising caution due to the high DSRI of 1.7389. The earnings quality score of 81.2 indicates decent performance, yet the revenue quality score of 0.0 is a significant red flag that warrants further scrutiny.

Red Flags

DSRI of 1.7389 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, which may signal potential revenue recognition issues.
Revenue quality score of 0.0 suggests that reported revenues may not be supported by actual cash flows, raising concerns about the sustainability of earnings.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 81.2/100 indicates overall strong earnings performance, particularly in cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100).
Beneish M-Score of -2.0306 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 51.0% of shares, which may lead to potential governance risks and reduced minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TMG's revenue recognition practices and consider conducting further due diligence on cash flow sustainability before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

5.11

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.26

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+45.1%

Volatility

128.5%

Max Drawdown

-40.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

13.72P/E

P/B4.18

P/S0.93

ROE31.2%

ROA14.2%

EPS4736.49

BVPS15566.22

Gross Margin13.7%

Net Margin6.8%

D/E1.21

Current Ratio0.87

Rev Growth8.4%

Profit Growth19.6%

EV/EBITDA7.45

Div Yield2.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

18.0M

Charter Capital

180.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Kim loại

Sub-industry

Thép và sản phẩm thép

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TMG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Khoáng sản TKV

Inst

51.0%

9.2 trieu

Công ty CP Lương Gia

Inst

17.5%

3.1 trieu

Nguyễn Hoàng Cường

Indiv

10.9%

2.0 trieu

Công ty TNHH Thương Mại Và Sản Xuất Vũ Hoàng

Inst

10.7%

1.9 trieu

Hoàng Thị Soi

Indiv

6.1%

1.1 trieu

Trần Thị Thu Hà

Indiv

2.5%

453.500

Board & Management

Nguyễn Văn Khanh

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thanh Long

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lại Trí Cường

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng

Đào Minh Sơn

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Văn Long

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Minh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thế Vinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Văn Lưỡng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đào Thị Khuê

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Ngô Thị Nhâm

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Hậu

Phó Giám đốc

Bùi Huy Tuấn

Phó Giám đốc

Vũ Đức Trung

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đình Chiến

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

CBI52.5%KCB51.9%BCV51.3%PCT22.3%KSQ16.7%SD910.9%XHC8.1%PRT5.0%C4G2.5%PNJ2.5%TNG2.5%MED2.5%

Computed 12/04/2026