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Real Estate sector

SZB

Real Estate
Công ty Cổ phần Sonadezi Long Bình
Bất động sảnCT
42.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
31.728
Current
42.000
Gap
-24.5%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
42.08%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.50%
x
D/(D+E)
57.92%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend7.27%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
27.480
60%DCF Value
34.560
Blended Intrinsic
31.728
Value Decomposition
32%
68%
Explicit period (32%)Terminal value (68%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SZB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

65
Fair
Accrual Quality
95
Cash Conversion
91
Receivables
25
Margin Stability
93
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.84
Low Risk
DSRI
0.643
GMI
0.989
AQI
1.137
SGI
0.991
DEPI
0.892
SGAI
0.998
TATA
-0.011
LVGI
1.016

The Beneish M-Score of -2.8383 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 65.3/100 reveals weaknesses in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks in financial reporting.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality score shows a concerning 0.0/100 in eq_revenue, indicating potential issues in revenue recognition.
  • The eq_receivables score of 24.5/100 suggests significant risk in accounts receivable management, which may lead to cash flow issues.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.8383 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • High eq_accrual score of 95.4/100 suggests strong accrual accounting practices.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are primarily institutional, with the largest holding at 46.2%, which may provide stability. However, high concentration in a few institutions could lead to governance risks if their interests diverge.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's receivables management and revenue recognition practices. Consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for improvements in earnings quality metrics before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.74
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.18
Positive
Composite
51
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+1.5%
Volatility
18.3%
Max Drawdown
-16.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.25P/E
P/B1.62
P/S2.41
ROE27.7%
ROA11.8%
EPS6723.82
BVPS26003.35
Gross Margin50.8%
Net Margin38.6%
D/E1.38
Current Ratio2.21
Rev Growth-0.9%
Profit Growth2.6%
EV/EBITDA4.16
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
30.0M
Charter Capital
300.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SZB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Khu Công nghiệp
Inst
46.2%
13.9 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Sonadezi Long Thành
Inst
8.4%
2.5 trieu
america limited liability company
Inst
6.9%
2.1 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Sonadezi Châu Đức
Inst
4.2%
1.3 trieu
Quỹ Đầu Tư Phát Triển Đồng Nai
Inst
3.0%
900.000
Trần Trung Chiến
Indiv
2.9%
856.300
Lương Minh Hiền
Indiv
1.2%
353.224
Nguyễn Bá Chuyên
Indiv
0.8%
240.300
Phạm Trọng Lập
Indiv
0.2%
65.000
Board & Management
Lương Minh Hiền1.2%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Bá Chuyên0.8%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Ngọc Sáu
Kế toán trưởng
Đặng Thị Ngọc Hà
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
ĐẶNG HẢI BẰNG
Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ /Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Văn Tỉnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Công Hiếu
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Anh Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Ngọc Đại
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Trần Thanh Hải
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Khả Phương Thu
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hà Thị Thu Thủy
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
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