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Consumer sector

BVN

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Bông Việt Nam
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT
24.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
98.033
Current
24.000
Gap
+308.5%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng cá nhân & Gia dụngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
86.55%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.48%
x
D/(D+E)
13.45%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.71%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF27.82B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
27.82B
Growth Rate
4.71%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
98.033
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BVN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

66
Fair
Accrual Quality
81
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
77
Margin Stability
35
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2018

-1.20
High Risk
DSRI
1.201
GMI
1.020
AQI
0.940
SGI
1.030
DEPI
0.880
SGAI
0.932
TATA
0.234
LVGI
1.044

The Beneish M-Score of -1.2046 indicates that BVN is not likely to be manipulating earnings, as it is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the low earnings quality score of 12.6/100, particularly concerning cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises significant concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 12.6/100 indicates poor earnings quality, particularly with eq_cash_conv at 0.0/100, suggesting a lack of cash generation from reported earnings.
  • High concentration of ownership with Trương Văn Dũng holding 89.9% raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.2046 suggests that the company is less likely to be engaging in earnings manipulation.
  • The SGI of 1.0300 indicates a slight growth in sales, which can be a positive signal in a growing market.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated with Trương Văn Dũng holding nearly 90%, which poses governance risks and limits minority shareholders' influence on corporate decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor BVN's cash flow generation and earnings quality metrics before making investment decisions, given the elevated risk profile. Consider engaging with management to address governance concerns and improve transparency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.76
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.06
Negative
Composite
79
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+30.0%
Volatility
109.7%
Max Drawdown
-37.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
4.31P/E
P/B0.91
P/S2.48
ROE23.7%
ROA20.8%
EPS5739.08
BVPS27067.97
Gross Margin54.8%
Net Margin57.6%
D/E0.13
Current Ratio6.45
Rev Growth-1.7%
Profit Growth93.5%
EV/EBITDA3.45
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
5.0M
Charter Capital
50.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng cá nhân
Sub-industry
Hàng cá nhân
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BVN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Trương Văn Dũng
Indiv
89.9%
4.5 trieu
Lê Thị Thu
Indiv
8.7%
436.600
Hoàng Thị Hương
Indiv
1.3%
65.400
Nguyễn Văn Khoa
Indiv
0.8%
42.421
Hồ Văn Sáu
Indiv
0.6%
0
Trần Thanh Hùng
Indiv
0.3%
16.726
nguyen-thanh-hung
Indiv
0.3%
16.100
Trần Anh Hảo
Indiv
0.3%
13.421
Nguyễn Thị Lan
Indiv
0.1%
7.216
Bùi Thị Lệ Dung
Indiv
0.1%
5.000
Board & Management
Trương Văn Dũng89.9%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Phương Thảo
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Nguyên Dương
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thế Lâm
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Minh Hồng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Xuân Hòa
Kế toán trưởng
Trương Thị Dung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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