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Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Trà Nóc - Ô Môn

VietnamUtilitiesĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtNước & Khí đốtUPCOMCT
32.500
VND · Close 2 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
+16.2%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
32.500
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
37.762

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt→Utility
Classified as utility because ICB sector “Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt” maps to the utility group.
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+).

Technical details
Why this model

Regulated utilities have capped growth but high, stable dividend payouts. DDM is the canonical valuation method when dividends are the primary return to shareholders. Many utilities follow stated or regulated payout policies, so actual dividends are a direct input.

How it works

Uses the median cash dividend of the last 3 years from corporate events; a company with no dividend record gets 50% of its median EPS. 3 stages: high growth (3yr at estimated rate), transition (3yr linear decay), terminal (perpetual at the sector's long-run growth rate). Discounts at cost of equity (CAPM). A payout above 40% of earnings is needed for high model reliability.

Best for

Regulated utilities, power companies, and water suppliers with stable, predictable dividend policies.

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.820
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend8.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS→1.700
Payout ratio→36.3%
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→32.500
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.2%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
37.762
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Growth rate8.00%growth method: fundamental equity blend
Dividend per share1.700dps source: eventspayout ratio: 36.27
Feeds valuation:GrowthModel inputs
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·32281021251212128
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)
·883893120.5
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)
·10100330000
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·953595555
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·60.60.335220.60.3
Net Inventories
·444444533
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·455444533
Other current assets
·0.50.30.610.90.70.520.4
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·189179179163153140132129118
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·002030000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·000.5000000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·16215815414512611511610899
Tangible fixed assets
·16215815414512611511610899
Other non-current assets
·977656887
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·977656887
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·221206189184178153144141126
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·242027272536343732
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·151319201624242325
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·4275611111110
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0000.020.10.10.10.380,100
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·97968129147
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)
·97968129147
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)
·19718716215815311611010594
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·19718716215815311611010594
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·808080808053535353
Other Reserves
·706559514435353120
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·104468117615
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·37371921221615156
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·221206189184178153144141126
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·000030000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·808080808053535353

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
54
Fair
Accrual Quality
96
Cash Conversion
75
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
46

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.62 · 77th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +0.21
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.763
GMI
1.058
AQI
1.184
SGI
1.024
DEPI
1.000
SGAI
0.858
TATA
0.010
LVGI
1.121

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
1.0045th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
2.9%56th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The firm's Beneish M-Score is -1.6213 (77th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +0.21, indicating accounting metrics that are more aggressive than most Vietnamese peers and moving toward greater aggressiveness. Key contributors to the M-Score are a high DSRI (1.7627) and elevated AQI (1.1843), while accruals quality is strong (96.1/100) but receivables quality scores zero (0.0/100). Solvency and bankruptcy-distance indicators are healthy: Altman Z-Score 9.18 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score is neutral at 4/9, and FY2025 statutory loss tests do not apply to its UPCoM listing.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score -1.6213 (77th percentile among Vietnamese peers): the score is above many local peers and moved +0.21 year-over-year; the percentile and increase suggest relative upward pressure on the manipulation-risk composite vs the Vietnamese universe (note: the -1.78 cutoff is US-calibrated).
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivables Index) = 1.7627: this measures the change in receivables relative to sales and a value substantially above 1 signals receivables growing faster than sales, consistent with weaker collection or revenue recognition timing.
  • AQI (Asset Quality Index) = 1.1843: this measures increases in non-current/non-operating assets (capitalized costs, other receivables, long-term assets) and a value >1 indicates rising asset-side items that can be used to manage earnings.
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Receivables outside the trade cycle = 2.9% of total assets (56th percentile): the formal score is minimal and the schedule shows some receivables/prepayments/loans outside the trade cycle, which may reduce the quality of reported revenue/receivables.
  • Margin quality = 45.8/100: indicates operating margin components are less consistent with high-quality earnings.
  • TATA (Total Accruals) = 0.0098: while this is small, combined with weak receivables quality and DSRI it suggests accruals aren't the primary mover but other areas (receivables/asset composition) are.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 96.1/100: this metric measures the extent to which earnings are driven by accruals versus cash; a high score implies reported profits are supported by cash flow rather than large non-cash accruals.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3 years) = 1.00 (45th percentile): this ratio equals one over the three-year window, indicating three-year operating cash roughly matches reported profit on aggregate (not excessively divergent).
  • Altman Z-Score = 9.18 (safe zone): the Z-Score measures distance to bankruptcy using profitability, leverage, liquidity and activity ratios; 9.18 is in the safe/low-bankruptcy-risk range.
  • No accumulated losses and zero consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025; owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive: these are straightforward balance-sheet and profit-history facts supportive of solvency.
Ownership Risk

Control is concentrated: CTW (Công ty Cổ phần Cấp thoát nước Cần Thơ) holds 65.4% (disclosed 2026-06-30), giving a single controlling shareholder. Other top holders are individuals with much smaller stakes (5.1%, 2.4%, 0.7%, 0.7%). No director-deal registrations were provided in the data supplied.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note on trade and other receivables to the related-party disclosures and the long-term receivables schedule to quantify the 2.9% of total assets labeled as receivables outside the trade cycle.
  • Reconcile the DSRI driver: compare year-over-year revenue (sales) and the trade receivables aging/sales reconciliation to see why DSRI = 1.7627 (receivables growth vs sales growth).
  • Inspect the fixed/other asset rollforward or 'changes in other non-current assets' note that feeds the AQI to identify whether increases reflect capital expenditures, capitalized costs, or related-party balances.
  • Compare consolidated operating cash flow and parent net profit line items across the three-year window to confirm the cash-conversion ratio of 1.00 and to see timing differences within the three years.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
9.18
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.07
Positive
Composite
48
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✗ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.80×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin0.44×Turnover0.48×Leverage1.12=ROE18.9%
Price Risk
Momentum
+8.3%
Volatility
55.9%
Max Drawdown
−19.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.04P/E
P/B
1.33
P/S
2.49
ROE
19.5%
ROA
17.5%
EPS
4.687
BVPS
24.738
Gross Margin
55.5%
Net Margin
35.4%
D/E
0.07
Current Ratio
2.21
EV/EBITDA
4.19
Div Yield
9.2%

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
8.0M
Charter Capital
79.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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