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Cyclicals sector

GVR

Cyclicals
Tập đoàn Công nghiệp Cao su Việt Nam - Công ty Cổ phần
Hóa chấtCT
32.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
27.433
Current
32.100
Gap
-14.5%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA6446.83B
Fair EV/EBITDA16.3x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
6446.83B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
16.3x
-
Net Debt
-4909.51B
=
Equity Value
27.433
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GVR

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

84
Good
Accrual Quality
98
Cash Conversion
88
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
86
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.60
Low Risk
DSRI
0.924
GMI
0.888
AQI
0.857
SGI
1.103
DEPI
0.849
SGAI
1.018
TATA
-0.006
LVGI
0.922

GVR demonstrates a low risk of earnings manipulation based on its Beneish M-Score of -2.5959, significantly below the manipulation threshold. The company also showcases strong earnings quality metrics, particularly in accruals and receivables, indicating solid financial health.

Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.5959, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggests low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 84.2/100, with high scores in eq_accrual (97.8/100) and eq_receivables (100.0/100), indicating strong earnings quality.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 96.8% held by state entities, which may limit minority shareholders' influence but also suggests stability in governance.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor GVR for any changes in earnings quality metrics and remain aware of the implications of state ownership on operational decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.63
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.15
Negative
Composite
67
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+18.8%
Volatility
60.7%
Max Drawdown
-37.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
25.88P/E
P/B2.57
P/S5.03
ROE10.3%
ROA6.6%
EPS1406.29
BVPS14164.97
Gross Margin29.9%
Net Margin19.4%
D/E0.38
Current Ratio2.90
Rev Growth10.3%
Profit Growth41.0%
EV/EBITDA16.26
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
4000.0M
Charter Capital
40000.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GVR — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Quản Lý Vốn Nhà Nước Tại Doanh Nghiệp
State
96.8%
3.9 ty
Bộ Tài Chính
State
96.8%
3.9 ty
Công ty Cổ Phần Xây Dựng Incontec
Inst
0.6%
24.7 trieu
Board & Management
Phạm Văn Thành
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Cửu Tuệ
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Trần Ngọc Thuận
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Đức Thuận
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Giang Hoa Vũ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thanh Phụng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trương Minh Trung
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hà Văn Khương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Thanh Hưng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Công Kha
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hay
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Phạm Văn Hỏi Em
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Lê Thanh Tú
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Khắc Chung
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Huỳnh Văn Bảo
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Mạnh Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Đỗ Khắc Thăng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Tiến Đức
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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