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Construction sector

MVN

Construction
Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam - CTCP
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
51.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
7.822.852
Current
51.000
Gap
+500.0%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
55.81%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.53%
x
D/(D+E)
44.19%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.06%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
9.122.851
50%DCF Value
6.522.852
Blended Intrinsic
7.822.852
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MVN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

76
Good
Accrual Quality
97
Cash Conversion
89
Receivables
83
Margin Stability
89
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.36
Moderate
DSRI
1.054
GMI
0.914
AQI
1.135
SGI
1.121
DEPI
1.001
SGAI
0.955
TATA
-0.007
LVGI
1.066

MVN exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.358, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the company's earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition, which raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 76.4/100 is decent, but the eq_revenue score of 0.0/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition.
  • The DSRI of 1.0545 suggests that accounts receivable are growing faster than revenue, which could indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • The eq_accrual score of 97.3/100 indicates strong accrual quality, suggesting that reported earnings are backed by actual cash flows.
  • The ownership structure shows 99.5% ownership by state entities, which may provide stability and support for the company.
Ownership Risk

The overwhelming state ownership (99.5%) reduces the risk of hostile takeovers but may lead to potential inefficiencies and lack of accountability in management decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of the low eq_revenue score. A cautious approach is advised, potentially waiting for clearer signals of operational performance before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.05
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.60
Negative
Composite
67
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-16.1%
Volatility
56.9%
Max Drawdown
-51.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
38.82P/E
P/B5.37
P/S3.98
ROE14.7%
ROA5.9%
EPS1624.41
BVPS11746.24
Gross Margin18.1%
Net Margin10.3%
D/E0.84
Current Ratio1.65
Rev Growth12.1%
Profit Growth-3.5%
EV/EBITDA22.40
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
6.4M
Charter Capital
12005.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Vận tải Thủy
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MVN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Quản Lý Vốn Nhà Nước Tại Doanh Nghiệp
State
99.5%
1.2 ty
Bộ Tài Chính
State
99.5%
1.2 ty
Ủy Ban Quản Lý Vốn Nhà Nước Tại Doanh Nghiệp
State
99.5%
1.2 ty
Board & Management
Phạm Anh Tuấn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Quang Trung
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Hùng Dương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Cảnh Tĩnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Anh Sơn
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đình Chung
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Thị Nhị Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Tuấn Hải
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Phạm Cao Nhuệ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Hạnh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Thị Thanh Thủy
Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Lê Minh Khôi
Phó Giám đốc Kiểm toán nội bộ
Trần Thị Bích
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Trần Thị Thanh Thủy
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Nguyễn Đình Tú
Phó Giám đốc Kiểm toán nội bộ
Nguyễn Thị Hiền
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Đỗ Tiến Đức
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lương Đình Minh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

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