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Cyclicals sector

VET

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Thuốc Thú y Trung ương NAVETCO
Hóa chấtCT
16.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
30.132
Current
16.100
Gap
+87.2%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA112.28B
Fair EV/EBITDA6.9x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
112.28B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
6.9x
-
Net Debt
290.71B
=
Equity Value
30.132
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VET

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

34
Weak
Accrual Quality
81
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
97

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.00
Moderate
DSRI
1.380
GMI
1.048
AQI
1.030
SGI
0.823
DEPI
0.831
SGAI
0.839
TATA
0.047
LVGI
0.933

VET exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.0015, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 34.0/100 highlights significant weaknesses in cash conversion and receivables management.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.0015 indicates potential earnings manipulation, with DSRI at 1.3802 suggesting increasing receivables relative to sales.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 34.0/100, particularly low cash conversion (0.0/100) and receivables quality (0.0/100), raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Revenue quality score of 96.5/100 suggests strong underlying revenue generation capabilities.
Ownership Risk

The dominant state ownership (65.0%) may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced transparency, as state-owned enterprises (SOEs) often prioritize political objectives over shareholder value.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VET's financial disclosures for signs of improved cash flow management and consider a cautious approach given the elevated risk of earnings manipulation.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.10
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.04
Negative
Composite
48
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+2.5%
Volatility
88.4%
Max Drawdown
-32.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.35P/E
P/B0.89
P/S0.87
ROE6.0%
ROA2.3%
EPS1157.18
BVPS18558.27
Gross Margin42.3%
Net Margin6.1%
D/E1.48
Current Ratio1.86
Rev Growth-17.3%
Profit Growth146.8%
EV/EBITDA11.49
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
16.0M
Charter Capital
160.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VET — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Bộ Nông Nghiệp Và Phát Triển Nông Thôn
State
65.0%
10.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Nova Consumer
Inst
12.2%
1.9 trieu
Phạm Thị Cúc
Indiv
5.9%
936.219
Trần Hải Ninh
Indiv
0.6%
100.000
Nguyễn Thị Kim Lan
Indiv
0.3%
46.400
Dương Mạnh Lân
Indiv
0.3%
42.700
Trần Xuân Hạnh
Indiv
0.2%
35.700
nguyen-thi-hong-hoa
Indiv
0.2%
26.400
Hồ Cảnh Sơn
Indiv
0.2%
26.500
Phạm Quang Thái
Indiv
0.1%
16.200
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thị Kim Lan0.3%
Kế toán trưởng
Dương Mạnh Lân0.3%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Xuân Hạnh0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Hoa0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Quang Thái0.1%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Trầm Tuấn Khanh
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hữu Huân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Mi Sa
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Trần Thanh Trâm
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Tống Thị Ngọc Nga
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hiếu Liêm
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Công Huyền Tôn Nữ Mỹ Liên
Giám đốc Tài chính
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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