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Consumer sector

VSF

Consumer
Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Nam - Công ty Cổ phần
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
27.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
10.226
Current
27.700
Gap
-63.1%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
38.39%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.06%
x
D/(D+E)
61.61%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.48%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF364.61B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
364.61B
Growth Rate
2.48%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
10.226
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VSF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

44
Weak
Accrual Quality
76
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.30
Low Risk
DSRI
0.845
GMI
0.760
AQI
0.906
SGI
0.830
DEPI
0.966
SGAI
1.292
TATA
-0.061
LVGI
1.057

The Beneish M-Score of -3.2952 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the Earnings Quality Score of 43.9 suggests significant concerns regarding the quality of earnings, particularly due to poor performance in receivables, margins, and revenue metrics.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 43.9 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability.
  • Receivables, margins, and revenue metrics all scoring 0.0/100 raise concerns about revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.2952 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily dominated by state entities, with 51.4% held by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced accountability in financial reporting.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor future earnings reports for improvements in revenue recognition and margin metrics, while considering a cautious approach due to the elevated risk level associated with ownership concentration and earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.72
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.80
Negative
Composite
20
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-25.7%
Volatility
45.5%
Max Drawdown
-30.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
441.33P/E
P/B5.45
P/S0.71
ROE1.2%
ROA0.4%
EPS57.03
BVPS4618.42
Gross Margin10.0%
Net Margin0.2%
D/E1.87
Current Ratio1.15
Rev Growth-17.0%
Profit Growth561.5%
EV/EBITDA44.30
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
500.0M
Charter Capital
5000.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Thực phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VSF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Bộ Tài Chính
State
51.4%
257.1 trieu
Bộ Nông Nghiệp Và Phát Triển Nông Thôn
State
51.4%
257.1 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn T&T
Inst
25.0%
125.0 trieu
Board & Management
Trần Vĩnh Thanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Phương Thảo
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Nguyễn Ngọc Nam
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Tấn Đức
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Thảo
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Tuấn Vinh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Quang Tâm
Giám đốc khối
Nguyễn Như Khoa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Ngọc Khanh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Lê Duy
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Phan Bá Ngọc Phương
Giám đốc Tài chính
Võ Thanh Hà
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Hoài
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Bạch Ngọc Văn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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