SBL

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Bia Sài Gòn - Bạc Liêu

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT

5.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

35.616

Current

5.900

Gap

+500.0%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

76.13%

Kd(1-t)

5.26%

D/(D+E)

23.87%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→22.26B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

22.26B

Growth Rate

4.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

35.616

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SBL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.88

Low Risk

DSRI

0.246

GMI

0.889

AQI

1.115

SGI

0.827

DEPI

1.079

SGAI

1.389

TATA

-0.124

LVGI

0.705

SBL exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.8825, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 67.0 suggests some concerns, particularly in margin and revenue metrics, which could impact future performance.

Red Flags

Earnings quality score of 67.0 indicates potential weaknesses in margin (0.0/100) and revenue recognition (57.1/100), which could signal revenue manipulation risks.
SGAI at 1.3895 suggests aggressive spending on selling, general, and administrative expenses, which may not correlate with revenue growth.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -3.8825 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, reflecting a potentially stable earnings reporting.
High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 suggests strong cash flow management, which is a positive indicator for operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top shareholder holding 20.0%, may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, particularly in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SBL's revenue recognition practices and margin improvements while considering the strong cash flow position. A cautious approach is advised given the ownership concentration and potential governance issues.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.90

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.09

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+29.9%

Volatility

71.3%

Max Drawdown

-27.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

129.98P/E

P/B0.47

P/S0.72

ROE0.4%

ROA0.3%

EPS53.85

BVPS14857.23

Gross Margin10.9%

Net Margin0.6%

D/E0.25

Current Ratio1.53

Rev Growth-17.3%

Profit Growth-66.6%

EV/EBITDA2.44

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

12.0M

Charter Capital

120.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Bia và đồ uống

Sub-industry

Sản xuất bia

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SBL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Bia Sài Gòn - Miền Tây

Inst

20.0%

2.4 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Phương Khanh

Indiv

11.3%

1.4 trieu

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bia - Rượu - Nước Giải khát Sài Gòn

Inst

10.2%

nguyen-duy-hung

Indiv

9.0%

1.1 trieu

Phạm Thị Hồng Hạnh

Indiv

5.1%

607.464

Đinh Ngọc Ninh

Indiv

4.9%

592.500

Đinh Lê Nghĩa

Indiv

4.8%

574.380

Phạm Hồng Minh

Indiv

2.6%

308.880

Nguyễn Xuân Hải

Indiv

1.7%

205.920

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hà

Indiv

1.6%

188.760

Đinh Thu Thảo

Indiv

1.6%

188.760

Nguyễn Văn Đồi

Indiv

1.5%

181.896

Ngô Bích Ngọc

Indiv

0.6%

68.640

Lê Võ Mạnh Hùng

Indiv

0.4%

50.000

Ngô Thị Xuân

Indiv

0.3%

34.320

Phạm Hồng Quang

Indiv

0.3%

34.320

Hà Văn Công

Indiv

0.3%

34.320

Board & Management

Phạm Thị Hồng Hạnh5.1%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Hồng Minh2.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Xuân Hải1.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Đồi1.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Dương Thị Thúy Hồng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Công Vinh

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Giám đốc

Huỳnh Vạn Đồng

Phó Giám đốc

Trần Thị Chất

Kế toán trưởng

Thái Thị Ánh Hồng

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trần Thị Ngọc Diệp

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Nguyên Trung

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tấn Phiên

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Văn Sang

Phó Giám đốc

Top connections

WSB2 links BSL68.8%BSQ66.6%SCD62.1%SBB59.6%SB12 links BSD2 links SMB32.2%BSP27.0%STD2 links PDC10.2%BTD10.1%

Computed 12/04/2026