PCH
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PCH
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
PCH exhibits a moderate risk profile with some concerning indicators in its Beneish M-Score components, particularly the high DSRI of 2.7522, suggesting potential revenue manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 82.9/100 indicates relatively strong cash conversion and receivables management, which are positive signals.
- DSRI of 2.7522 indicates significant growth in receivables compared to sales, suggesting potential revenue recognition issues.
- SGAI of 1.1979 indicates higher than normal selling, general and administrative expenses growth, which could signal inefficiencies or potential manipulation.
- Earnings Quality Score of 82.9/100 reflects strong cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100), indicating good operational efficiency.
- Beneish M-Score of -1.2556 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
The ownership structure is concentrated with the top shareholder holding 21.5%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. However, the presence of multiple shareholders could provide some checks and balances.
Investors should closely monitor PCH's receivables growth and SG&A expenses while leveraging its strong cash conversion metrics. Consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for improved transparency in financial reporting before making significant investments.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
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> mapping common ownership for PCH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate