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Construction sector

CPI

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Cảng Cái Lân
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
4.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
3.065
Current
4.900
Gap
-37.5%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
100.00%
+
Kd(1-t)
0.00%
x
D/(D+E)
0.00%
=
WACC
12.20%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
2.002
50%DCF Value
4.128
Blended Intrinsic
3.065
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CPI

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

57
Fair
Accrual Quality
46
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.63
Low Risk
DSRI
0.739
GMI
1.153
AQI
0.757
SGI
1.822
DEPI
0.881
SGAI
0.540
TATA
-0.153
LVGI
0.906

CPI shows signs of potential earnings manipulation with a Beneish M-Score of -2.625, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. While the earnings quality score of 56.5 indicates some level of reliability, significant weaknesses in revenue and margin metrics raise concerns.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.625 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality metrics show a score of 0.0/100 for both eq_margin and eq_revenue, suggesting severe issues in profitability and revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
  • Low DSRI of 0.7386 suggests that inventory levels are well-managed compared to sales, potentially indicating operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam holding 56.6%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and the implications of concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
-7.49
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.84
Positive
Composite
56
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+64.0%
Volatility
85.4%
Max Drawdown
-27.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
53.82P/E
P/B0.00
P/S2.44
ROE-13.4%
ROA6.2%
EPS83.82
BVPS0.00
Gross Margin10.3%
Net Margin4.5%
D/E-3.52
Current Ratio1.07
Rev Growth82.2%
Profit Growth53.7%
EV/EBITDA31.77
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
36.5M
Charter Capital
365.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CPI — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam
Inst
56.6%
20.7 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Quảng Ninh
Inst
8.1%
3.0 trieu
Tập Đoàn Geleximco
Inst
4.9%
1.8 trieu
Thẩm Nguyễn Thục Anh
Indiv
0.8%
300.000
Thẩm Hồng Sơn
Indiv
0.5%
200.000
Bùi Quang Đạo
Indiv
0.2%
58.560
Nguyễn Bá Sơn
Indiv
0.1%
42.040
Board & Management
Thẩm Hồng Sơn0.5%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Quang Đạo0.2%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Bá Sơn0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Văn Toàn
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Minh Nguyệt
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Kiều Oanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Thị Hoa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Thị Thanh Duyên
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Quang Trung
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Tuấn Hiền
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Vũ Linh
Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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