NGC

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Chế biến Thủy sản Xuất khẩu Ngô Quyền

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

1.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

63.106

Current

1.200

Gap

+500.0%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

10.10%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→11.14B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

11.14B

Growth Rate

4.00%

WACC

10.10%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

63.106

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NGC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2022

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2021

0.19

High Risk

DSRI

1.449

GMI

-11.275

AQI

0.572

SGI

9.771

DEPI

2.567

SGAI

0.048

TATA

0.148

LVGI

0.856

The Beneish M-Score of 0.1868 indicates a significant likelihood of earnings manipulation, particularly with a DSRI of 1.4493 suggesting aggressive revenue recognition. The earnings quality score of 31.8/100, especially the alarming 0.0/100 in cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises further concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 0.1868, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
DSRI of 1.4493, suggesting aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Earnings Quality Score of 31.8/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100, indicating poor cash flow relative to earnings.

Positive Signals

High receivables quality score of 100.0/100, indicating strong management of accounts receivable.
Institutional ownership of 54.8%, which may provide some level of oversight and stability.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder Nguyễn Đoàn Anh Vĩ holds 25.0%, which could lead to potential governance issues if interests diverge from minority shareholders. However, the presence of institutional investors may mitigate some risks associated with concentrated ownership.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow analysis and revenue recognition practices. Consider waiting for clearer signals of earnings sustainability before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

-0.12

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-2.13

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-36.4%

Volatility

63.0%

Max Drawdown

-65.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2022

-0.68P/E

P/B0.00

P/S0.05

ROE205.8%

ROA-4.6%

EPS-2787.85

BVPS0.00

Gross Margin-1.1%

Net Margin-7.6%

D/E-21.10

Current Ratio0.64

Rev Growth-52.1%

Profit Growth-179.0%

EV/EBITDA-22.23

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.3M

Charter Capital

23.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NGC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Đoàn Anh Vĩ

Indiv

25.0%

574.900

TCM Investment Funds Luxembourg

Inst

18.8%

432.000

Công ty TNHH Kiên Hùng

Inst

15.0%

345.000

Intereffeki Investment Funds

Inst

10.7%

246.000

Trustus Beleggingsfondsen N.V. - TCM Vietnam High Dividend Equity

Indiv

9.3%

213.900

Phạm Văn Hoàng

Indiv

9.0%

180.000

Hoàng Công Thành

Indiv

7.8%

179.370

Tạ Thị Mùi

Indiv

5.0%

114.800

Nguyễn Quang Kim

Indiv

4.2%

84.000

Trustus Beleggingsfondsen N.V. - TCM Global Frontier High Dividend Equity

Indiv

3.0%

69.000

Nguyễn Duy Phước

Indiv

2.8%

55.000

Huỳnh Châu Sang

Indiv

2.1%

48.300

Nguyễn Ngọc Thủy

Indiv

1.7%

38.410

nguyen-thanh-hung

Indiv

1.6%

32.220

Huỳnh Ngọc Thạch

Indiv

1.6%

37.030

Dương Thị Ánh Nguyệt

Indiv

0.7%

16.100

Dương Thị Thanh Nguyệt

Indiv

0.6%

14.000

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hồng

Indiv

0.6%

11.060

Nguyễn Ngọc Anh

Indiv

0.2%

4.680

Nguyễn Tiến Phú

Indiv

0.2%

3.680

Board & Management

Nguyễn Đoàn Anh Vĩ25.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Tạ Thị Mùi5.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Huỳnh Châu Sang2.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Lương Khắc Trung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Võ Thế Trọng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Kim Búp

Kế toán trưởng

Ngô Hữu Phước

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hồ Quang Diệp

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Huỳnh Nhi Chúc

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

XMC51.0%SMC14.0%KTC9.0%TTD7.9%PXA7.8%PTX7.8%HSP4.9%TLT2.1%QST1.9%NRC1.8%TCD1.7%BVH1.7%

Computed 12/04/2026