AGG

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Bất động sản An Gia

Bất động sảnCT

13.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

25.277

Current

13.300

Gap

+90.0%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

44.59%

Kd(1-t)

6.95%

D/(D+E)

55.41%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.56%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

27.033

60%DCF Value

24.106

Blended Intrinsic

25.277

Value Decomposition

32%

68%

Explicit period (32%)Terminal value (68%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — AGG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.87

Moderate

DSRI

0.540

GMI

0.441

AQI

4.140

SGI

0.433

DEPI

0.761

SGAI

1.337

TATA

0.114

LVGI

0.646

AGG exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -1.8735, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 28.9/100 reflects significant weaknesses in cash conversion and receivables management, raising further red flags.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.8735 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 28.9/100, with eq_cash_conv and eq_receivables both at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in cash flow and receivables management.

Positive Signals

Strong revenue recognition with eq_revenue at 98.8/100 indicates that revenue is being recognized appropriately.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with Nguyễn Bá Sáng holding 26.2%, which could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, especially in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should approach AGG with caution, closely monitoring future earnings reports and cash flow metrics. Consider diversifying investments to mitigate risks associated with potential earnings manipulation.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.51

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.97

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-16.8%

Volatility

28.5%

Max Drawdown

-42.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

5.70P/E

P/B0.61

P/S2.61

ROE11.5%

ROA6.1%

EPS2333.11

BVPS21626.42

Gross Margin70.4%

Net Margin45.7%

D/E0.56

Current Ratio1.01

Rev Growth-56.7%

Profit Growth27.5%

EV/EBITDA7.76

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

162.5M

Charter Capital

1625.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for AGG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Bá Sáng

Indiv

26.2%

42.5 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Kim Hoa

Indiv

4.9%

3.7 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Bích Thủy

Indiv

4.9%

3.7 trieu

Võ Ngọc Mai Trang

Indiv

4.9%

4.0 trieu

nguyen-huong-giang

Indiv

3.4%

5.5 trieu

Nguyễn Thành Châu

Indiv

2.9%

3.6 trieu

KIM Vietnam IPO Balanced Fund

Inst

2.7%

2.2 trieu

Hanoi Investments Holdings Limited

Inst

2.3%

2.6 trieu

DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company

Inst

2.0%

2.2 trieu

Nguyễn Quỳnh Giang

Indiv

1.7%

2.8 trieu

Nguyễn Mai Giang

Indiv

1.5%

2.4 trieu

Kim Koic Vietnam Ipo Private Fund

Inst

1.4%

1.1 trieu

Hồ Thị Nguyệt Anh

Indiv

0.9%

1.5 trieu

Phạm Thị Trà My

Indiv

0.5%

628.897

Nguyễn Trung Tín

Indiv

0.5%

386.760

Samsung Vietnam Securities Master Investment Trust

Inst

0.4%

459.000

KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund

Inst

0.4%

330.000

KB Vietnam Focus Balanced Fund

Inst

0.2%

215.200

Huỳnh Thị Kim Anh

Indiv

0.2%

200.000

MASAKAZU YAMAGUCHI

Indiv

0.1%

119.689

Board & Management

Nguyễn Bá Sáng26.2%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thành Châu2.9%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Trung Tín0.5%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Huỳnh Thị Kim Ánh0.2%

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

MASAKAZU YAMAGUCHI0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

VŨ QUANG THỊNH

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Đỗ Lê Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập/Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Top connections

PMG20.0%HLS7.6%TDH6.2%TTZ5.1%HLY5.1%BCC5.0%TPS5.0%PGN5.0%VNT5.0%NTH4.9%KST4.9%TRA4.9%

Computed 12/04/2026