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Consumer sector

TRA

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Traphaco
Y tế/Dược phẩmCT
68.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Fairly Valued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
69.884
Current
68.000
Gap
+2.8%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTY tếConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
70.67%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.36%
x
D/(D+E)
29.33%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend6.48%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF155.44B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
155.44B
Growth Rate
6.48%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
69.884
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TRA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

78
Good
Accrual Quality
97
Cash Conversion
76
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
99
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.92
Moderate
DSRI
1.328
GMI
0.993
AQI
1.259
SGI
1.144
DEPI
0.925
SGAI
1.034
TATA
0.006
LVGI
0.952

TRA exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -1.9169, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation; however, the DSRI of 1.3285 suggests potential issues with receivables. While the earnings quality score is relatively strong at 78.1/100, the revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags
  • DSRI of 1.3285 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, suggesting potential revenue recognition issues.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 signals possible aggressive accounting practices or unrecognized revenue.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings quality score of 78.1/100 indicates a generally good level of earnings quality.
  • High accrual score of 97.4/100 suggests effective management of accruals, indicating less reliance on accounting adjustments.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant state control with 35.7% held by a state-owned enterprise, which may influence operational decisions and limit minority shareholder rights.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TRA's receivables and revenue recognition practices while considering a cautious approach due to elevated risk indicators. Engaging with management on these issues may provide further clarity.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
5.26
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.25
Negative
Composite
61
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.7%
Volatility
18.5%
Max Drawdown
-14.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.29P/E
P/B1.82
P/S1.05
ROE16.8%
ROA11.1%
EPS6023.09
BVPS37454.39
Gross Margin53.0%
Net Margin9.3%
D/E0.39
Current Ratio2.71
Rev Growth14.8%
Profit Growth4.5%
EV/EBITDA6.66
Div Yield2.9%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
41.5M
Charter Capital
414.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Y tế
Industry (ICB L3)
Dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Dược phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TRA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước
State
35.7%
14.8 trieu
Magbi Fund Limited
Inst
25.0%
10.4 trieu
Super Delta Pte. Ltd
Inst
15.1%
6.3 trieu
access s.a., sicav-sif-asia top picks
Inst
5.0%
2.1 trieu
Citgroup Global Markets Limited
Inst
4.7%
1.2 trieu
Trần Túc Mã
Indiv
4.2%
1.7 trieu
Quỹ Đầu tư Chứng khoán Y tế Bản Việt
Inst
1.7%
430.056
Vũ Thị Thuận
Indiv
1.1%
471.254
nguyen-huy-van
Indiv
1.1%
437.673
Nguyễn Thị Mùi
Indiv
0.5%
121.840
Nguyễn Thị Hoan
Indiv
0.2%
100.560
Đào Thúy Hà
Indiv
0.2%
74.850
Nguyễn Thị Lan
Indiv
0.2%
73.460
Phạm Thị Phượng
Indiv
0.2%
39.106
Nguyễn Thị Bảo Vân
Indiv
0.1%
59.800
nguyen-thanh-tung
Indiv
0.1%
55.701
Đinh Trung Kiên
Indiv
0.1%
52.362
Phạm Thị Thanh Duyên
Indiv
0.1%
26.152
Nguyễn Thị Kim Hoa
Indiv
0.1%
26.031
Hoàng Thị Rược
Indiv
0.1%
34.776
Board & Management
Trần Túc Mã4.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Huy Văn1.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Lan0.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đào Thúy Hà0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đinh Trung Kiên0.1%
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Văn Bùi
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lee Tae Yon
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Chung Ji Kwang
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Kim Dong Hyu
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Lương Thanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thanh Hoa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Anh Tuấn
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nông Hữu Đức
Giám đốc Chi nhánh
Kwon Ki Bum
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lại Trần Đông
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thái Sơn
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
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