PGN

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Phụ Gia Nhựa

Hóa chấtCT

6.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.283

Current

6.800

Gap

+21.8%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→16.65B

Fair EV/EBITDA→7.6x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

16.65B

Fair EV/EBITDA

7.6x

Net Debt

48.69B

Equity Value

8.283

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PGN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

3.75

High Risk

DSRI

2.267

GMI

1.581

AQI

15.171

SGI

0.572

DEPI

1.229

SGAI

0.869

TATA

-0.147

LVGI

0.833

PGN exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 3.7506, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality metrics reveal concerning weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 3.7506 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
DSRI of 2.2668 suggests aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Earnings Quality Score of 47.1/100, particularly low scores in receivables (0.0/100) and revenue (21.9/100), indicate poor earnings quality.

Positive Signals

Cash conversion rate is perfect at 100.0/100, indicating strong cash flow relative to earnings.
SGI of 0.5720 suggests that revenue growth is slowing, which could indicate a more sustainable growth path if managed correctly.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated, with the top five shareholders holding 53.2% of the company. This concentration could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor PGN's financial disclosures for signs of manipulation. It is advisable to wait for improved earnings quality metrics and a more transparent governance structure before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.72

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-1.38

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-52.2%

Volatility

44.8%

Max Drawdown

-64.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

31.11P/E

P/B0.54

P/S0.46

ROE1.7%

ROA1.0%

EPS199.29

BVPS11587.41

Gross Margin3.6%

Net Margin1.5%

D/E0.58

Current Ratio1.78

Rev Growth-42.8%

Profit Growth149.7%

EV/EBITDA22.20

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

9.5M

Charter Capital

94.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hóa chất

Industry (ICB L3)

Hóa chất

Sub-industry

Nhựa, cao su & sợi

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PGN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Huỳnh Văn Quảng

Indiv

24.8%

2.3 trieu

Chu Văn Phương

Indiv

6.9%

657.049

Phạm Văn Lai

Indiv

6.5%

612.947

Vũ Quỳnh Anh

Indiv

5.0%

471.500

Nguyễn Thị Bích Thủy

Indiv

5.0%

471.610

Nguyễn Quốc Bình

Indiv

4.3%

409.099

Hoàng Thị Quỳnh Da

Indiv

3.8%

359.500

Lê Nguyễn Thanh Hải

Indiv

3.0%

100.000

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hường

Indiv

2.4%

80.000

Ngô Hoài Thanh

Indiv

2.1%

197.538

Trần Đặng Công

Indiv

1.5%

141.484

Board & Management

Chu Văn Phương6.9%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Quốc Bình4.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Ngô Hoài Thanh2.1%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Đặng Công1.5%

Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Đắc Nhật

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Việt Oanh

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Duyên

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Tuấn Nghĩa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Dương Thị Hải Hà

Giám đốc Sản xuất

Phạm Duy Ga

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Nguyễn Trọng Cường

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Đặng Phi

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

SVD24.8%TTZ2 links TV224.8%PMG20.0%NTP6.9%PTG6.5%AGG5.0%NSH5.0%BQB5.0%DHN5.0%PIA5.0%NAG5.0%

Computed 12/04/2026