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Cyclicals sector

BFC

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Phân bón Bình Điền
Hóa chấtCT
56.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
35.565
Current
56.500
Gap
-37.0%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA460.51B
Fair EV/EBITDA6.8x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
460.51B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
6.8x
-
Net Debt
1122.73B
=
Equity Value
35.565
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BFC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

34
Weak
Accrual Quality
15
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
56
Revenue Quality
37

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.71
High Risk
DSRI
1.240
GMI
1.193
AQI
0.993
SGI
1.134
DEPI
0.978
SGAI
0.862
TATA
0.285
LVGI
1.067

BFC exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by its Beneish M-Score of -0.7067, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 33.8/100 reflects significant weaknesses in cash conversion and accruals, raising further concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.7067 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 33.8/100, with an eq_cash_conv score of 0.0/100, suggests severe issues with cash flow relative to reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • The receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which could imply effective credit policies.
Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam at 65.0% suggests a strong influence over corporate governance, which could lead to potential conflicts of interest or lack of accountability in financial reporting.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow metrics and management practices, before considering an investment in BFC.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
4.24
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.20
Excellent
Composite
39
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+23.7%
Volatility
31.7%
Max Drawdown
-20.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.42P/E
P/B2.34
P/S0.30
ROE23.5%
ROA8.6%
EPS5420.45
BVPS24162.00
Gross Margin12.5%
Net Margin2.9%
D/E1.34
Current Ratio1.46
Rev Growth13.3%
Profit Growth-13.2%
EV/EBITDA6.87
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
57.2M
Charter Capital
571.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BFC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam
Inst
65.0%
37.2 trieu
Vietnam Investment Property Holdings Limited
Inst
3.0%
1.7 trieu
Vietnam Investment Property Limited
Inst
1.9%
1.1 trieu
Lê Quốc Phong
Indiv
0.3%
163.440
Quỹ Đầu tư Trái phiếu Bảo Việt
Inst
0.1%
78.270
Board & Management
Lê Quốc Phong0.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Tấn Sơn
Giám đốc Tài chính/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Minh Sơn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Võ Văn Phu
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Ngô Văn Đông
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Quang Huy
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Huy Hiếu
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Ngọc Hùng
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Quản Đình Gang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Thế Chuyên
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Thành Phụng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Minh Phú
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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