SVG

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Hơi kỹ nghệ Que hàn

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

6.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.230

Current

6.900

Gap

-9.7%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

76.69%

Kd(1-t)

4.99%

D/(D+E)

23.31%

WACC

10.52%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

9.757

50%DCF Value

2.703

Blended Intrinsic

6.230

Value Decomposition

37%

63%

Explicit period (37%)Terminal value (63%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SVG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.23

Moderate

DSRI

0.969

GMI

1.378

AQI

1.014

SGI

1.174

DEPI

0.946

SGAI

0.729

TATA

-0.022

LVGI

1.043

SVG exhibits several concerning indicators of potential financial manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.2261, which is below the manipulation threshold. However, the company shows strong earnings quality metrics, particularly in cash conversion and receivables, which may mitigate some of the risks associated with its financial reporting.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.2261 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
SGI of 1.1739 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by actual revenue increases, raising concerns about sustainability.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 67.8/100 indicates relatively strong earnings quality, particularly with a cash conversion score of 100.0/100.
Low DSRI of 0.9694 suggests that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales, which is a positive sign for operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The overwhelming ownership by Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam at 98.2% raises concerns about minority shareholder rights and potential governance issues, as decisions may heavily favor the majority stakeholder.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SVG's financial disclosures for signs of manipulation and consider diversifying their portfolio to mitigate risks associated with high ownership concentration and aggressive growth strategies.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.25

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.25

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+13.0%

Volatility

99.0%

Max Drawdown

-40.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

248.73P/E

P/B0.67

P/S0.73

ROE0.3%

ROA0.2%

EPS27.74

BVPS10370.96

Gross Margin10.1%

Net Margin0.3%

D/E0.30

Current Ratio1.91

Rev Growth17.4%

Profit Growth13.8%

EV/EBITDA9.72

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

29.4M

Charter Capital

293.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Công nghiệp phức hợp

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SVG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam

Inst

98.2%

28.8 trieu

Cao Thị Thúy

Indiv

0.1%

30.900

Board & Management

Tạ Mạnh Hiền

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Thúy Nga

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Võ Hồng Nhung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Trọng Tín

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Thanh Thủy

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thắng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thùy Dương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Anh Phong

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Tạ Mạnh Hiền

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

DHB98.2%XPH98.2%LAS98.2%HVT98.2%VAF98.2%SFG98.2%BFC98.2%CSV98.2%DDV98.2%PAC98.2%CSM98.2%NFC98.2%

Computed 12/04/2026