VAF
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VAF
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
VAF exhibits several concerning indicators related to earnings quality and potential manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 1.0383, which suggests possible earnings manipulation. However, the strong institutional ownership structure could provide some stability and confidence in governance.
- Beneish M-Score of 1.0383 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it exceeds the threshold of -1.78.
- Earnings Quality Score of 49.6/100 is below average, particularly driven by a low eq_cash_conv of 4.9/100, indicating poor cash conversion relative to earnings.
- High institutional ownership at 91.6% (67.1% by Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam and 24.5% by Công ty TNHH Hoàng Ngân) suggests strong governance and alignment with shareholder interests.
- Excellent receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables, which is a positive sign for cash flow.
The dominant institutional ownership reduces the risk of erratic decision-making often seen in firms with high individual ownership, but it also raises concerns about potential lack of transparency in governance practices.
Investors should closely monitor VAF's financial disclosures and earnings reports for signs of manipulation, while considering the strong institutional backing as a mitigating factor. A cautious approach is advised until further clarity on earnings quality is established.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
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> mapping common ownership for VAF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate