Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 49.500
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 47.424
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Technical details
Commodity/basic-material earnings swing with global prices. Using mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across booms and busts, preventing overpayment at cyclical peaks. EV/EBITDA is preferred over P/E because it's capital-structure-neutral and not distorted by depreciation policies.
Computes the 7-year median EBITDA and the 7-year median EV/EBITDA. With fewer than 5 years of its own EBITDA, the company's EBITDA is estimated as revenue x the sector median margin. When mid-cycle EBITDA is not positive, the value is 70% of book value per share. Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Commodity producers, basic materials, chemicals, and oil & gas companies with multi-year earnings cycles.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 1.1050th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 0.2%15th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows mixed signals: a Beneish M‑Score of -1.192 (85th percentile versus Vietnamese peers) and a year‑over‑year rise of +2.66 indicate accounting metrics moving toward more aggressive patterns relative to peers, while the earnings‑quality composite is poor at 38.4/100 with especially weak accruals (19.0/100) and cash conversion (18.7/100). Offsetting indicators include a high Altman Z‑Score of 12.45 (safe zone) and a Piotroski F‑Score of 7/9 (relatively strong fundamentals), and statutory loss tests are not met in the published statements for FY2025.
- Beneish M‑Score = -1.192 (measures a combination of variables intended to flag earnings manipulation; this company sits at the 85th percentile among Vietnamese peers, meaning it is more aggressive than ~85% of peers on those metrics).
- Year‑over‑year M‑Score change = +2.66 (measures the trajectory in the composite; a large positive change suggests the accounting profile has shifted materially this year relative to last).
- AQI (quality of accruals) = 1.5402 (component of the M‑Score; values >1 indicate higher accruals or lower accrual quality and here drive part of the elevated M‑Score).
- DEPI = 1.4686 and LVGI = 0.5667 (DEPI >1 suggests inventory accounting or depreciation profile changed toward lower depreciation or higher gross margins; LVGI <1 can indicate lower asset growth in the denominator — both are M‑Score components contributing to the aggressive signal).
- Earnings‑quality subcomponents: accruals quality 19.0/100 and cash conversion 18.7/100 (these measures show net profit is not well supported by cash flow and accruals appear weak).
- Cash conversion (3‑year OCF / net profit) = 1.10 (50th percentile among Vietnamese non‑financials; this middling result means profit is not being consistently converted into operating cash at a strong rate).
- Altman Z‑Score = 12.45 (measures distance to bankruptcy; this value lies in the safe zone, indicating low bankruptcy risk per the metric).
- Piotroski F‑Score = 7/9 (measures nine signals of accounting and operating strength; a 7 indicates generally healthy fundamentals on profitability, leverage/liquidity, and operating efficiency).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 0.2% of total assets (15th percentile among Vietnamese peers; this low figure indicates little exposure to long‑term receivables, prepayments to suppliers or loans receivable that sit outside normal trade).
- Revenue quality = 50.4/100 and receivables quality = 100.0/100 (these suggest reported revenue and receivables patterns are not the principal immediate concern in the earnings‑quality decomposition).
- No accumulated losses, owner’s equity (ex‑minority) positive, and zero years of parent net loss through FY2025 (these are favorable balance‑sheet and net‑income continuity facts in the published statements).
Shareholding is concentrated: Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam holds 51.0% and Công ty TNHH Hoàng Ngân 16.3%, so two institutions control 67.3% combined; a substantial 10.0% is held by an individual (Phạm Mạnh Ninh). Director‑deal registrations in the past year show 2 purchase registrations totaling 610,000 shares (net registered volume +3.88% of shares outstanding) and 0 sale registrations — these are exchange filings of trading intent, not executed trades.
- Compare the FY2025 statement of cash flows (operating cash flow line) with consolidated profit after tax to reproduce the 3‑year cash conversion ratio and inspect the notes to cash flow for one‑off timing items.
- Inspect the note(s) on receivables, prepayments and loans to related parties to verify the 0.2% of total assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle and check counterparty names and maturities.
- Review the inventory and depreciation policies and the fixed‑assets note to assess drivers of DEPI = 1.4686 (changes in depreciation rates, revaluations, or inventory write‑downs).
- Examine the auditor’s report and the statutory loss test disclosures in the annual audited financial statements to confirm that none of the Decree 155/2020 (as amended) loss criteria are met for FY2025.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 2.37
- P/S
- 0.63
- ROE
- 50.2%
- ROA
- 36.2%
- EPS
- 8.823
- BVPS
- 20.850
- Gross Margin
- 26.6%
- Net Margin
- 11.2%
- D/E
- 0.00
- Current Ratio
- 4.70
- Rev Growth
- +36.5%
- Profit Growth
- +219.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 3.98
- Div Yield
- 4.0%
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 15.7M
- Charter Capital
- 157B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Hóa chất
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Hóa chất
- Sub-industry
- Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
- Company Type
- CT