NFC

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Phân lân Ninh Bình

Hóa chấtCT

62.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

31.333

Current

62.000

Gap

-49.5%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→38.39B

Fair EV/EBITDA→10.8x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

38.39B

Fair EV/EBITDA

10.8x

Net Debt

-78.96B

Equity Value

31.333

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NFC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.93

High Risk

DSRI

0.566

GMI

0.624

AQI

1.847

SGI

1.356

DEPI

1.900

SGAI

1.158

TATA

0.270

LVGI

0.556

NFC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -0.9322, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well above the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 37.4/100 suggests significant concerns regarding the sustainability and reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 37.4/100 indicates weak earnings sustainability, particularly in accruals (17.3/100) and cash conversion (17.8/100).
High DEPI of 1.9000 suggests potential issues with revenue recognition practices, indicating that revenue may be overstated.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -0.9322 is well above the manipulation threshold, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant institutional ownership (67.3%), which may provide stability, but the dominance of Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam (51.0%) raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest and lack of independent oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor earnings quality metrics and consider a deeper analysis of revenue recognition practices. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach until improvements in earnings sustainability are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

12.11

Safe Zone

Sharpe

1.71

Excellent

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+275.6%

Volatility

73.3%

Max Drawdown

-24.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.72P/E

P/B2.92

P/S0.77

ROE52.0%

ROA37.6%

EPS9096.00

BVPS20891.27

Gross Margin26.6%

Net Margin11.5%

D/E0.25

Current Ratio4.77

Rev Growth36.5%

Profit Growth219.9%

EV/EBITDA4.96

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

15.7M

Charter Capital

157.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hóa chất

Industry (ICB L3)

Hóa chất

Sub-industry

Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NFC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam

Inst

51.0%

8.0 trieu

Công ty TNHH Hoàng Ngân

Inst

16.3%

2.6 trieu

Phạm Mạnh Ninh

Indiv

10.0%

1.6 trieu

Phạm Hồng Sơn

Indiv

1.3%

201.928

Hoàng Mỹ Hạnh

Indiv

1.0%

163.925

Hà Huy San

Indiv

0.4%

69.607

Nguyễn Ngọc Chi

Indiv

0.3%

42.711

Nguyễn Ngọc Thạch

Indiv

0.2%

32.850

Tạ Thị Kim Chúc

Indiv

0.2%

32.729

Lê Thị Lan Anh

Indiv

0.2%

29.499

Board & Management

Phạm Mạnh Ninh10.0%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Hồng Sơn1.3%

Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Huy San0.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Ngọc Chi0.3%

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Ngọc Thạch0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Tạ Thị Kim Chúc0.2%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Dương Như Đức

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Ngọc Thuấn

Kế toán trưởng/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Vi Hoàng Sơn

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

SVG98.2%DHB97.7%XPH80.0%LAS69.8%HVT68.5%VAF3 links SFG65.0%BFC65.0%CSV65.0%DDV64.0%PAC51.4%CSM51.0%

Computed 12/04/2026