VNVALUEVNVALUE
Updated weekly
Back to Dashboard
Cyclicals sector

DHB

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Phân đạm và Hóa chất Hà Bắc
Hóa chấtCT
13.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
9.464
Current
13.400
Gap
-29.4%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA682.16B
Fair EV/EBITDA6.5x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
682.16B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
6.5x
-
Net Debt
1888.95B
=
Equity Value
9.464
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DHB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

51
Fair
Accrual Quality
60
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
16
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.84
Low Risk
DSRI
1.429
GMI
0.559
AQI
0.979
SGI
0.975
DEPI
0.872
SGAI
1.048
TATA
-0.100
LVGI
0.989

DHB exhibits significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.8371, which is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality metrics reveal severe weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, raising concerns about the reliability of reported financials.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.8371 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 51.1/100, with eq_receivables at 15.5/100 and eq_revenue at 0.0/100, suggests poor revenue recognition and high risk of accounting irregularities.
Positive Signals
  • Cash conversion rate is perfect at 100.0/100, indicating strong cash flow relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam holding 97.7% and the state owning 64.0%, which may limit minority shareholder influence and increase the risk of decisions favoring controlling shareholders over minority interests.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in DHB, particularly focusing on the company's revenue recognition practices and overall financial transparency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
0.57
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.17
Negative
Composite
35
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-7.0%
Volatility
42.8%
Max Drawdown
-32.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
345.76P/E
P/B5.94
P/S0.87
ROE1.7%
ROA0.2%
EPS39.88
BVPS2320.51
Gross Margin11.2%
Net Margin0.3%
D/E8.16
Current Ratio1.23
Rev Growth-2.0%
Profit Growth58.6%
EV/EBITDA6.37
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
272.2M
Charter Capital
2722.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DHB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tập đoàn Hóa chất Việt Nam
Inst
97.7%
265.8 trieu
Ủy Ban Quản Lý Vốn Nhà Nước Tại Doanh Nghiệp
State
64.0%
174.2 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Xuất Nhập Khẩu Hà Anh
Inst
0.2%
449.500
Board & Management
Hà Xuân Hán
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Phùng Hưng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Anh Tuấn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Tân Hoa
Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán
Nguyễn Văn Đông
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Xuân Thủy
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Phạm Văn Trung
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Thiệu
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Dũng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Thị Minh Lý
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Đức Ninh
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →