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Utilities sector

BNW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Nước sạch Bắc Ninh
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
16.800
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
14.571
Current
16.800
Gap
-13.3%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend1.74%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS780
Payout ratio72.2%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
780
Base Growth
1.74%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
14.571
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BNW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

71
Good
Accrual Quality
76
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
40
Revenue Quality
36

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.03
Moderate
DSRI
1.854
GMI
1.252
AQI
0.473
SGI
1.032
DEPI
1.140
SGAI
1.002
TATA
-0.060
LVGI
1.050

BNW exhibits several concerning indicators suggesting potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.0288, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 70.5 indicates a reasonable level of earnings quality, with strong cash conversion metrics.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.0288 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • DSRI of 1.8538 suggests a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, raising concerns about revenue recognition practices.
  • Low eq_margin score of 40.3/100 indicates potential issues with profitability relative to revenue.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 70.5/100 indicates overall decent earnings quality.
  • Strong cash conversion metrics with eq_cash_conv at 100.0/100 suggest that cash flows are being managed effectively.
  • High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 implies that the company is likely managing its receivables well.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 49.1% held by the local government and another 49.1% by a state-owned enterprise, which may lead to conflicts of interest and limit shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence on BNW's revenue recognition practices and monitor changes in the ownership structure, while considering a cautious approach to investment given the elevated risk indicators.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.43
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.83
Positive
Composite
70
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+117.5%
Volatility
127.4%
Max Drawdown
-46.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
17.93P/E
P/B1.52
P/S2.12
ROE8.3%
ROA3.8%
EPS931.51
BVPS10997.08
Gross Margin24.8%
Net Margin11.8%
D/E1.25
Current Ratio1.04
Rev Growth3.2%
Profit Growth-31.8%
EV/EBITDA8.38
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
37.5M
Charter Capital
375.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BNW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bắc Ninh
Indiv
49.1%
18.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Nước sạch Bắc Ninh
Inst
49.1%
18.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Tập Đoàn Long Phương
Inst
35.1%
13.2 trieu
Vũ Thị Chuyên
Indiv
5.1%
1.9 trieu
Lưu Xuân Tâm
Indiv
0.2%
56.900
Board & Management
Vũ Thị Chuyên5.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lưu Xuân Tâm0.2%
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Việt Thắng
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Trần Thị Hương
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Mai Lan
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Đình Tôn
Kế toán trưởng/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Phương
Kế toán trưởng
Trần Đại Hải
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Tiến Long
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn An
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Ngô Minh Châu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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