HVN
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HVN
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
HVN's Beneish M-Score of -2.4494 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the significant state ownership and the mixed earnings quality metrics suggest potential governance risks and earnings quality concerns that warrant caution.
- High state ownership at 55.2% may lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced accountability.
- Earnings Quality Score of 80.2/100, while decent, shows a concerning 0.0/100 for eq_margin, indicating potential issues with profit margins.
- Cash conversion rate of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation capabilities.
- Beneish M-Score of -2.4494 suggests low likelihood of earnings manipulation, which is a positive signal for investors.
The high concentration of state ownership (over 55%) raises concerns about governance and decision-making processes, potentially limiting minority shareholder influence.
Investors should closely monitor HVN's earnings quality metrics and governance structure, considering a cautious approach due to elevated ownership risks while recognizing the strong cash flow generation.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for HVN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate