HEC

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Tư vấn xây dựng Thủy Lợi II

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanhCT

62.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

56.974

Current

62.000

Gap

-8.1%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.000

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

11.50%

E/(D+E)

68.87%

Kd(1-t)

7.32%

D/(D+E)

31.13%

WACC

10.20%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.17%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→17.12B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

17.12B

Growth Rate

6.17%

WACC

10.20%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

56.974

Value Decomposition

44%

56%

Explicit period (44%)Terminal value (56%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HEC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.98

Moderate

DSRI

1.731

GMI

0.905

AQI

0.246

SGI

0.798

DEPI

1.006

SGAI

1.328

TATA

0.071

LVGI

0.750

HEC exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -1.984, which is below the threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 38.7/100 further highlights significant issues, particularly in cash conversion and receivables management.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.984 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the critical threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality score of 38.7/100, with a particularly low cash conversion score of 23.1/100, suggests poor earnings quality.
Receivables management score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 1.7314 indicates that inventory growth is not excessive compared to sales, which is a positive sign.
SGI of 0.7983 suggests that sales growth is stable and not overly aggressive.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated, with the top five shareholders holding over 76% of shares. This concentration may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow and receivables management. It may be prudent to monitor upcoming financial disclosures closely for any signs of improvement or further deterioration.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.98

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.21

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+12.4%

Volatility

42.8%

Max Drawdown

-19.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

8.37P/E

P/B1.01

P/S1.72

ROE12.5%

ROA7.4%

EPS7630.56

BVPS62486.33

Gross Margin45.4%

Net Margin20.7%

D/E0.30

Current Ratio3.34

Rev Growth-20.2%

Profit Growth-17.7%

EV/EBITDA4.08

Div Yield7.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

6.0M

Charter Capital

60.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ Kinh doanh

Sub-industry

Tư vấn & Hỗ trợ KD

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HEC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Bùi Hữu Quỳnh

Indiv

31.7%

1.9 trieu

Ngô Thu Hương

Indiv

20.5%

1.2 trieu

Bùi Trung Thu

Indiv

13.7%

577.000

Phạm Thị Thanh Hương

Indiv

5.8%

350.000

Nguyễn Văn Tiến

Indiv

4.9%

296.010

Nguyễn Ngọc Duy

Indiv

2.9%

172.770

Trần Văn Hiển

Indiv

2.3%

135.760

Lê Văn Quốc

Indiv

2.1%

127.180

Bùi Hữu Vũ Hoàng

Indiv

1.7%

100.610

Nguyễn Trọng Bào

Indiv

1.1%

44.880

Ngô Thu Hà

Indiv

0.8%

50.600

Nguyễn Đức Chiến

Indiv

0.6%

38.130

Trần Hữu Thành

Indiv

0.6%

25.850

Phạm Minh Trí

Indiv

0.6%

34.000

Hồ Hữu Nhẫn

Indiv

0.5%

20.900

Đào Văn Nam

Indiv

0.5%

27.500

Nguyễn Tiến Đạt

Indiv

0.4%

20.980

Bùi Lộc

Indiv

0.2%

11.300

Trần Thị Hân

Indiv

0.2%

6.850

Board & Management

Bùi Hữu Quỳnh31.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Ngô Thu Hương20.5%

Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Tiến4.9%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Văn Hiển2.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Văn Quốc2.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Đức Chiến0.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Minh Trí0.6%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đào Văn Nam0.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Tiến Đạt0.4%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

QUẢN XUÂN BÌNH

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Ngọc Quỳnh Lam

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Hải Sơn

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

LHC4 links LBE2 links CCC2 links GLC23.8%L402 links BVL20.5%VCS5.8%DBD5.8%ST85.8%AGM4.9%SMC4.9%DVG4.9%

Computed 12/04/2026