HPB

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Bao bì PP

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

22.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

35.561

Current

22.800

Gap

+56.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

82.08%

Kd(1-t)

6.37%

D/(D+E)

17.92%

WACC

11.16%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.31%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

21.553

50%DCF Value

49.569

Blended Intrinsic

35.561

Value Decomposition

39%

61%

Explicit period (39%)Terminal value (61%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HPB

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.54

Low Risk

DSRI

1.118

GMI

0.914

AQI

1.073

SGI

1.007

DEPI

1.555

SGAI

1.068

TATA

-0.051

LVGI

0.901

HPB exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.5364, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the company's earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and profit margins, which could pose risks to financial stability.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 72.0/100 indicates potential issues, especially with eq_margin at 28.0/100 and eq_revenue at 19.7/100, suggesting aggressive revenue recognition practices.
DSRI of 1.1179 indicates a slight increase in receivables relative to sales, which could signal potential revenue inflation.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.5364 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Strong cash conversion metrics with eq_cash_conv at 100.0/100 indicate effective cash management.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated, with the top five shareholders holding 65.8% of shares, which could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and margin improvements while considering the concentrated ownership structure. A thorough analysis of cash flow and operational efficiency is recommended before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.03

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.44

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+115.0%

Volatility

78.4%

Max Drawdown

-43.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

4.73P/E

P/B0.56

P/S0.46

ROE12.7%

ROA10.5%

EPS4101.91

BVPS33530.91

Gross Margin12.2%

Net Margin10.0%

D/E0.19

Current Ratio3.07

Rev Growth0.7%

Profit Growth74.9%

EV/EBITDA6.04

Div Yield8.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

3.9M

Charter Capital

38.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HPB — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Mai Văn Bình

Indiv

24.5%

895.420

Trần Thị Thanh Hương

Indiv

13.3%

484.720

Mai Thúc Định

Indiv

10.4%

381.280

Mai Hương

Indiv

10.0%

365.440

Phạm Duy Dần

Indiv

7.7%

279.920

Bùi Tố Hùng

Indiv

7.5%

273.900

Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Trinh

Indiv

5.2%

190.000

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư An Tường

Inst

4.7%

181.800

Nguyễn Văn Sùng

Indiv

4.2%

154.500

Nguyễn Thúy Hiền

Indiv

3.5%

127.700

Đỗ Văn Lê

Indiv

3.3%

121.580

Công ty Cổ Phần Property One

Inst

2.6%

102.400

Chu Thị Hải Anh

Indiv

2.3%

83.000

Công ty Tài Chính Cổ Phần Handico

Inst

2.0%

77.000

Nguyễn Thị Hà

Indiv

1.9%

70.900

Cao Thị Lan

Indiv

1.5%

55.000

Mai Thị Thanh Hà

Indiv

1.5%

53.550

Nguyễn Hoàng Phong

Indiv

1.4%

50.000

nguyen-thi-hai-yen

Indiv

1.3%

47.350

Phạm Thị Thưởng

Indiv

1.2%

44.400

Bùi Tố Định

Indiv

0.8%

28.270

Trần Ngọc Tuấn

Indiv

0.7%

26.000

Trần Văn Hồng

Indiv

0.6%

22.790

Vũ Tiên Phong

Indiv

0.4%

16.130

Dương Đức Hùng

Indiv

0.3%

12.400

Vũ Khắc Bút

Indiv

0.3%

10.200

Board & Management

Mai Văn Bình24.5%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Thúc Định10.4%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Mai Hương10.0%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Tố Hùng7.5%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thúy Hiền3.5%

Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Hải Yến1.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Tiên Phong0.4%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát/Giám đốc Xí nghiệp

Vũ Khắc Bút0.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Trung Quyết

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hải Anh

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Top connections

HBD11 links PIT24.5%CCC13.3%VNA13.3%PTI13.3%GGG9.4%SMT4.9%KTS4.9%YBC4.9%VNG4.1%TNS4.1%SVN4.0%

Computed 12/04/2026