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Utilities sector

AVC

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Thủy điện A Vương
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
49.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
131.791
Current
49.700
Gap
+165.2%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS6.989
Payout ratio170.2%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
6.989
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
131.791
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — AVC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

62
Fair
Accrual Quality
50
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
58
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.27
Low Risk
DSRI
0.789
GMI
1.034
AQI
0.959
SGI
0.966
DEPI
0.888
SGAI
1.053
TATA
-0.137
LVGI
0.716

AVC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -3.2717, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 61.7 suggests some concerns, particularly in revenue recognition, which received a score of 0.0, indicating potential issues with reported revenues.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality score of 0.0 for revenue indicates significant concerns regarding revenue recognition practices.
  • SGAI of 1.0529 suggests that selling, general, and administrative expenses are increasing faster than revenue, which could indicate inefficiencies.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -3.2717 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • High cash conversion score of 100.0 suggests strong cash flow relative to earnings, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 87.5% held by Tổng Công ty Phát điện 2, which could lead to governance risks and lack of minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor revenue recognition practices closely due to the low revenue score and consider diversifying their holdings to mitigate risks associated with concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
18.45
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.13
Negative
Composite
61
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-3.1%
Volatility
53.3%
Max Drawdown
-20.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
13.29P/E
P/B3.09
P/S5.13
ROE24.5%
ROA21.6%
EPS3739.73
BVPS16090.58
Gross Margin51.7%
Net Margin38.6%
D/E0.11
Current Ratio3.43
Rev Growth-3.4%
Profit Growth-5.6%
EV/EBITDA8.51
Div Yield1.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
75.1M
Charter Capital
750.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for AVC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 2
Inst
87.5%
65.6 trieu
Đặng Thanh Bình
Indiv
4.7%
3.5 trieu
Tổng Công Ty Điện Lực Miền Trung
Inst
2.6%
2.0 trieu
Tổng Công ty Phát điện 1
Inst
2.4%
1.8 trieu
Đặng Ngọc Hoàng
Indiv
1.3%
1.0 trieu
Đặng Thị Lan Ngọc
Indiv
1.3%
1.0 trieu
Tổng Công ty Điện Lực Thành Phố Hà Nội
Inst
0.8%
586.664
Phạm Thị Phương Khuê
Indiv
0.1%
100.000
Board & Management
Đặng Thanh Bình4.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Xuân Thế
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Đình Phúc
Kế toán trưởng
Đoàn Ngọc Nam
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Cao Huy Bảo
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Đình Tấn
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Võ Thị Lan Anh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Thiện
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Phước Lễ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đoàn Trung Thông
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lưu Ngọc Mai Phi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Việt Hưng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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