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Consumer sector

HKT

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư QP Xanh
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
21.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
5.223
Current
21.500
Gap
-75.7%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Intrinsic Value
BVPS
10.447
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value
10.447

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HKT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

32
Weak
Accrual Quality
25
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
38

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.08
High Risk
DSRI
1.471
GMI
0.036
AQI
0.986
SGI
0.534
DEPI
0.743
SGAI
1.771
TATA
0.406
LVGI
0.511

HKT displays several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -1.0771, which is above the threshold for manipulation risk. Additionally, the company's earnings quality score of 11.1/100, particularly low cash conversion and receivables metrics, raises further red flags regarding financial transparency.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.0771 indicates potential earnings manipulation risk, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 11.1/100 highlights significant issues, particularly with eq_accrual and eq_cash_conv both at 0.0/100, suggesting poor earnings quality and cash flow issues.
  • DSRI of 1.4709 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, which may suggest aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • SGI of 0.5341 reflects a decrease in sales growth, which may indicate a more conservative approach to revenue expectations.
  • EQ_margin of 64.6/100 suggests that when revenue is recognized, it is done so with a reasonable margin, indicating some level of operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated, with Vi Thị Dung holding 60.3% of shares, which may pose risks of governance issues and lack of minority shareholder protections. This concentration can lead to potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor HKT's financial disclosures and performance metrics. A thorough review of cash flow statements and revenue recognition policies is recommended before considering any investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.89
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.98
Positive
Composite
40
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+93.3%
Volatility
72.4%
Max Drawdown
-39.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
85.14P/E
P/B1.31
P/S11.00
ROE2.6%
ROA1.9%
EPS160.92
BVPS10446.89
Gross Margin3.0%
Net Margin12.9%
D/E0.36
Current Ratio65.06
Rev Growth-64.0%
Profit Growth1999.0%
EV/EBITDA-192.47
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
33.3M
Charter Capital
333.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Đồ uống & giải khát
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HKT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Vi Thị Dung
Indiv
60.3%
20.1 trieu
Dương Thị Chín
Indiv
21.0%
7.0 trieu
Hoàng Quang Hưng
Indiv
4.9%
301.000
Đinh Tuấn Anh
Indiv
4.7%
290.300
Đỗ Văn Mạnh
Indiv
4.5%
279.164
nguyen-kim-anh
Indiv
4.5%
249.100
Nguyễn Thị Thủy Ngân
Indiv
4.2%
1.4 trieu
Dương Văn Hiểu
Indiv
4.2%
1.4 trieu
CÔNG TY CỔ PHẦN ĐẦU TƯ CHUYÊN NGHIỆP VIỆT NAM
Inst
3.7%
228.356
Hồ Văn Tuấn
Indiv
3.6%
1.2 trieu
nguyen-thi-hang
Indiv
1.8%
605.000
Nguyễn Hoài Anh
Indiv
1.6%
50.327
Lê Quang Phúc
Indiv
1.5%
501.529
Phùng Thị Bích Liên
Indiv
0.1%
6.600
Board & Management
Nguyễn Xuân Hiển
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Lưu Hồng Huệ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Hiển
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đinh Trí Dũng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Hải Anh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hoàng Hà
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Ngô Minh Hải
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Hường
Kế toán trưởng
BÙI MINH TRANG
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Đặng Thế Phi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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