KOS

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần KOSY

Bất động sảnCT

39.050

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.727

Current

39.050

Gap

-82.8%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

48.02%

Kd(1-t)

5.31%

D/(D+E)

51.98%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.66%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

13.454

60%DCF Value

-8.918

Blended Intrinsic

6.727

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — KOS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.31

Moderate

DSRI

0.984

GMI

1.041

AQI

1.047

SGI

1.081

DEPI

1.003

SGAI

0.851

TATA

0.010

LVGI

0.996

KOS exhibits several concerning indicators of earnings quality and potential manipulation, particularly highlighted by a Beneish M-Score of -2.3058, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the company shows strong metrics in accruals and receivables, suggesting some operational strengths.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.3058 indicates potential earnings manipulation as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 57.2/100 reflects weaknesses in cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue recognition (0.0/100), signaling potential issues in revenue sustainability.

Positive Signals

High eq_accrual score of 95.8/100 suggests effective management of accruals, indicating that reported earnings may be more reliable.
Strong receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates effective collection processes and potential for cash flow generation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the largest shareholder holding 35.4%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The presence of institutional investors may provide some oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor KOS for signs of earnings manipulation and assess the sustainability of its revenue streams. A cautious approach is advised, considering the elevated risk level and concentrated ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.83

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.65

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-1.1%

Volatility

11.8%

Max Drawdown

-13.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

438.39P/E

P/B3.54

P/S5.31

ROE0.8%

ROA0.4%

EPS87.02

BVPS10763.39

Gross Margin11.2%

Net Margin1.2%

D/E1.08

Current Ratio2.25

Rev Growth8.1%

Profit Growth-12.1%

EV/EBITDA50.54

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

216.5M

Charter Capital

2164.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for KOS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

nguyen-viet-cuong-2

Indiv

35.4%

76.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Leo Regulus

Inst

10.3%

22.2 trieu

nguyen-thi-hang

Indiv

6.4%

13.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Mavico

Inst

6.4%

10.5 trieu

Ngô Thị Hoa

Indiv

5.0%

8.2 trieu

Nguyễn Quốc Thao

Indiv

4.9%

8.0 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Địa Ốc Kosy

Inst

4.6%

10.0 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Phương Thảo

Indiv

3.3%

7.2 trieu

Nguyễn Trung Kiên

Indiv

2.1%

4.5 trieu

Nguyễn Mạnh Sáu

Indiv

0.6%

600.000

Nguyễn Quốc Hưng

Indiv

0.2%

375.000

Nguyễn Đức Diệp

Indiv

0.1%

239.111

Phạm Thị Thắng

Indiv

0.1%

78.055

Board & Management

Nguyễn Việt Cường35.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Hằng6.4%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Phương Thảo3.3%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Diệp0.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Thắng0.1%

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Thị Thu Hà

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Việt Thung

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Quốc Việt

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Hà Sỹ Dinh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Thu Hoài

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Tạ Ngọc Sơn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thoa

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Phùng Thị Hải Vân

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kinh doanh

Nguyễn Thiện Phú

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Tài chính

Lương Hồng Phong

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Kim Oanh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Doanh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Công Khánh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tiến Hoàn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

GIL35.4%TVM35.4%HPW35.4%VC235.4%DTT35.4%SFG35.4%TMS35.4%DNC29.8%PCT22.3%SHC10.0%VLS9.7%KSD9.0%

Computed 12/04/2026