HNF

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Thực phẩm Hữu Nghị

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

26.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

59.488

Current

26.500

Gap

+124.5%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

33.60%

Kd(1-t)

6.84%

D/(D+E)

66.40%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.47%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→142.46B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

142.46B

Growth Rate

3.47%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

59.488

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HNF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.14

Moderate

DSRI

0.995

GMI

1.079

AQI

2.406

SGI

0.914

DEPI

0.909

SGAI

1.059

TATA

-0.039

LVGI

0.970

HNF exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as suggested by its Beneish M-Score of -2.1428, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the company's earnings quality metrics show strengths in cash conversion and accruals, indicating some level of operational integrity.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.1428 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality metrics reveal a very low receivables score of 24.2/100 and revenue score of 0.0/100, suggesting possible issues with revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

High cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong operational cash flow.
Accrual quality score of 84.6/100 suggests that earnings are being recognized in line with cash flows.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 56.8% held by a single institutional investor and 39.1% by an individual, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence on HNF's revenue recognition practices and monitor any changes in ownership dynamics, while considering a cautious approach to investment given the elevated risk indicators.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

1.76

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.79

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-48.0%

Volatility

101.9%

Max Drawdown

-54.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.81P/E

P/B1.24

P/S0.50

ROE14.4%

ROA5.0%

EPS3406.60

BVPS24237.50

Gross Margin30.2%

Net Margin5.7%

D/E1.81

Current Ratio1.07

Rev Growth-7.9%

Profit Growth-42.7%

EV/EBITDA7.28

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

30.0M

Charter Capital

300.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HNF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH MTV DNA Holding

Inst

56.8%

17.0 trieu

Trịnh Trung Hiếu

Indiv

39.1%

11.7 trieu

Trịnh Anh Đức

Indiv

4.7%

887.905

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Indiv

4.2%

844.500

Lê Thị Hà Thanh

Indiv

3.5%

640.000

Lưu Thanh Tâm

Indiv

3.2%

640.000

Nguyễn Trọng Lạc

Indiv

2.4%

485.385

Nguyễn Thị Hải Lan

Indiv

1.0%

294.150

Nguyễn Thị Hải Vân

Indiv

0.9%

174.852

Trịnh Xuân Tiến

Indiv

0.5%

100.000

Lê Thị Anh

Indiv

0.5%

97.618

Trịnh Văn Phụng

Indiv

0.3%

75.744

Trịnh Trung Sơn

Indiv

0.1%

35.381

Kiều Xuân Quỳnh

Indiv

0.1%

20.898

Trịnh Trung Dũng

Indiv

0.1%

20.000

Board & Management

Trịnh Trung Hiếu39.1%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lại Thị Lỡi

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

TẠ NGUYÊN HẢI

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

NGUYỄN THÁI DƯƠNG

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Tuấn Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Thái Anh Tuấn

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Ba Lê

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đoàn Thùy Dương

Kế toán trưởng

Lê Thị Lan Anh

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Việt Anh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kinh doanh

Lê Mai Dịu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đoàn Quang Cảnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thành Công

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

HUT5.0%VPG4.7%MCG4.3%HPP4.2%HWS4.2%CLH4.2%AMS4.2%DS34.2%HPX4.2%X264.2%VLB4.2%VRC4.2%

Computed 12/04/2026