HPX

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Hải Phát

Bất động sảnCT

4.790

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.766

Current

4.790

Gap

+83.0%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

43.24%

Kd(1-t)

5.24%

D/(D+E)

56.76%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.38%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

14.603

60%DCF Value

4.874

Blended Intrinsic

8.766

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HPX

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.89

Moderate

DSRI

1.249

GMI

1.059

AQI

1.703

SGI

0.707

DEPI

0.278

SGAI

0.426

TATA

0.069

LVGI

1.100

HPX exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -1.8919, which is below the manipulation threshold. Additionally, the company's earnings quality score of 20.8/100 highlights significant weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.8919 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 20.8/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in converting earnings into actual cash flow.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 1.2490 indicates inventory management may be reasonable, as it is close to the industry average.
SGI of 0.7073 suggests that sales growth is not excessively high compared to the previous period, which may indicate a more sustainable growth trajectory.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly fragmented with no single shareholder holding a controlling stake, which may dilute accountability and oversight. However, the presence of individual shareholders with significant stakes could align interests with minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on HPX, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices. Consider monitoring for any changes in management or financial reporting that may address these red flags.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

0.83

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.08

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+18.2%

Volatility

32.9%

Max Drawdown

-27.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

12.84P/E

P/B0.44

P/S1.36

ROE3.5%

ROA1.5%

EPS398.91

BVPS11682.47

Gross Margin30.3%

Net Margin10.6%

D/E1.39

Current Ratio1.76

Rev Growth-29.3%

Profit Growth111.2%

EV/EBITDA9.93

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

304.2M

Charter Capital

3041.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HPX — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Đỗ Quý Hải

Indiv

13.4%

40.8 trieu

Hoàng Văn Toàn

Indiv

5.0%

15.2 trieu

Hoàng Thị Ý

Indiv

4.9%

15.0 trieu

Trần Xuân Việt

Indiv

2.4%

3.6 trieu

Trần Thùy Anh

Indiv

2.4%

3.6 trieu

Chu Thị Lương

Indiv

1.7%

5.0 trieu

nguyen-viet-dung

Indiv

1.6%

4.8 trieu

Lã Quốc Đạt

Indiv

1.0%

3.0 trieu

Lê Việt Dũng

Indiv

0.5%

1.4 trieu

Idris Ltd

Inst

0.4%

700.000

Đỗ Quý Đường

Indiv

0.2%

674.128

Nguyễn Văn Phương

Indiv

0.2%

608.337

Lê Thanh Hải

Indiv

0.1%

391.140

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Indiv

0.1%

381.200

Hoàng Thị Như

Indiv

0.1%

318.900

Board & Management

Đỗ Quý Hải13.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Việt Dũng0.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Phương0.2%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

PHẠM MINH TUẤN

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Huy Thông

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Ngô Quốc Huân

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Trọng Thiết

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Quý Thành

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đoàn Hòa Thuận

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Hồng Sơn

Kế toán trưởng

Đinh Thế Quỳnh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đỗ Danh Trí

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Phan Thị Xuyến

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trần Vũ Thái Hòa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Top connections

VCT24.0%TTG20.6%SJM13.3%S9910.4%KSD9.8%BLF8.9%HQC8.4%HUT5.0%HMS5.0%DNP5.0%AGM2 links SDP5.0%

Computed 12/04/2026