HSP

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Sơn Tổng hợp Hà Nội

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

14.200

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

11.421

Current

14.200

Gap

-19.6%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

85.93%

Kd(1-t)

6.33%

D/(D+E)

14.07%

WACC

11.37%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.34%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

11.818

50%DCF Value

11.024

Blended Intrinsic

11.421

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HSP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

0.93

High Risk

DSRI

1.008

GMI

0.823

AQI

8.783

SGI

0.995

DEPI

1.233

SGAI

1.033

TATA

0.070

LVGI

0.966

HSP exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 0.9333, which is above the manipulation threshold. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 49.8/100 reflects significant weaknesses in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 0.9333 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings quality cash conversion score of 18.5/100 suggests poor cash flow relative to reported earnings.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates significant issues in revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of accounts receivable.
DSRI of 1.0084 suggests that inventory growth is in line with revenue growth, which is a positive sign.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholder, Công ty TNHH Quản Lý Đầu Tư Hap Việt Nam, holds a significant 30.8% stake, which may lead to concentrated decision-making and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on HSP, particularly focusing on cash flow and revenue recognition practices before considering any investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

6.86

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.89

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+48.7%

Volatility

19.9%

Max Drawdown

-14.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.35P/E

P/B0.87

P/S0.39

ROE10.4%

ROA9.0%

EPS1701.45

BVPS16403.89

Gross Margin16.7%

Net Margin4.7%

D/E0.15

Current Ratio7.02

Rev Growth11.0%

Profit Growth-1.5%

EV/EBITDA4.58

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

12.0M

Charter Capital

120.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HSP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Quản Lý Đầu Tư Hap Việt Nam

Inst

30.8%

3.7 trieu

Tôn Nữ Cẩm Vân

Indiv

13.3%

1.6 trieu

Nguyễn Trọng Oánh

Indiv

4.9%

594.408

Nguyễn Ngọc Anh

Indiv

4.9%

583.980

Nguyễn Thiện Ái

Indiv

1.7%

199.818

Nguyễn Ái Vân Anh

Indiv

1.5%

177.080

nguyen-xuan-cuong

Indiv

0.9%

110.608

Quản Thị Bình

Indiv

0.4%

51.329

nguyen-thanh-ha

Indiv

0.4%

34.947

Trần Thế Giang

Indiv

0.4%

45.417

Nguyễn Mạnh Đức

Indiv

0.3%

40.000

Vương Tuấn Anh

Indiv

0.1%

14.665

Nguyễn Thị Hoa

Indiv

0.1%

11.634

Board & Management

Nguyễn Ngọc Anh4.9%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thiện Ái1.7%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Xuân Cương0.9%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thế Giang0.4%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Mạnh Đức0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Minh Đức

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Hồng Hạnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thị Huyền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Lê Minh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Top connections

NSG24.0%SHG21.2%SMC14.0%VTE12.7%KDM6.3%EME6.2%RCC5.5%FTM5.1%AVC4.9%SHI4.9%S554.9%KHS4.9%

Computed 12/04/2026