HSV
CyclicalsValuation Breakdown
Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.
Valuation Track Record
Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HSV
Earnings Quality
Fiscal year 2025
Financial Forensics
Beneish M-Score · 2025
The forensic assessment of HSV indicates significant red flags related to potential financial manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 110.8339, which is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 48.8/100 suggests substantial concerns regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.
- Beneish M-Score of 110.8339 indicates likely financial manipulation.
- Earnings quality score of 48.8/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises concerns about the reliability of earnings.
- SGI of 1.7592 indicates aggressive revenue growth that may not be supported by cash flows.
- Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of receivables.
- DSRI of 0.6415 indicates a decrease in inventory relative to sales, which can be a positive signal for operational efficiency.
The ownership structure is concentrated among a few individuals, with the largest shareholder holding only 10.5%. This could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, especially in a market where SOEs and conglomerates dominate.
Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before considering an investment in HSV, focusing on cash flow analysis and management's credibility. Monitoring future earnings reports for signs of improvement in cash conversion and overall earnings quality is essential.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
Company Overview
// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK
> mapping common ownership for HSV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate