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Cyclicals sector

PLX

Cyclicals
Tập đoàn Xăng dầu Việt Nam
Dầu khí/Sản xuất Dầu khíCT
42.250
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
37.986
Current
42.250
Gap
-10.1%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTDầu khíCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Dầu khí" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA4583.52B
Fair EV/EBITDA12.4x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
4583.52B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
12.4x
-
Net Debt
7890.91B
=
Equity Value
37.986
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PLX

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

81
Good
Accrual Quality
94
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
65
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.12
Moderate
DSRI
1.189
GMI
1.042
AQI
1.366
SGI
1.091
DEPI
1.109
SGAI
0.985
TATA
-0.014
LVGI
1.029

PLX demonstrates a Beneish M-Score of -2.115, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal concerns, particularly with a revenue quality score of 0.0, suggesting potential issues with revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0 indicates no reliability in revenue recognition, which is a significant concern.
  • High state ownership at 75.9% could lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced market discipline.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 81.3/100 reflects strong overall earnings quality, particularly high cash conversion at 100.0/100.
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.115 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
Ownership Risk

The dominant state ownership at 75.9% may limit shareholder influence and raise concerns about governance and transparency, particularly in a market where SOEs often prioritize state mandates over shareholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of high state ownership on governance. A cautious approach is advised, potentially waiting for improved revenue quality metrics before increasing exposure.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.34
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.69
Positive
Composite
70
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+27.8%
Volatility
43.1%
Max Drawdown
-30.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
24.95P/E
P/B2.57
P/S0.22
ROE10.3%
ROA3.2%
EPS2083.79
BVPS20195.79
Gross Margin5.9%
Net Margin0.9%
D/E1.92
Current Ratio1.07
Rev Growth9.1%
Profit Growth-6.7%
EV/EBITDA16.40
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
1293.9M
Charter Capital
12938.8B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Dầu khí
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất Dầu khí
Sub-industry
Sản xuất và Khai thác dầu khí
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PLX — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Bộ Tài Chính
State
75.9%
981.7 trieu
Ủy Ban Quản Lý Vốn Nhà Nước Tại Doanh Nghiệp
State
75.9%
981.7 trieu
Ủy Ban Quản Lý Vốn Nhà Nước Tại Doanh Nghiệp
State
75.9%
981.7 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Eneos Việt Nam
Inst
13.1%
169.2 trieu
Jx Nippon Oil & Energy Corporation
Inst
8.0%
103.5 trieu
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thanh Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Anh Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Quang Dũng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Hoàng Mai Ninh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Văn Hướng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Xuân Hùng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Ngọc Năm
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đào Nam Hải
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thu Trang
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Lê Huy Hiệp
Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Trần Trang Thảo
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Nguyễn Thị Phương Anh
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Đỗ Thị Kim Ngân
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Nguyễn Sỹ Cường
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Văn Thanh
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lưu Văn Tuyển
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Vinh Thanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đinh Thị Kiều Trang
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Đặng Quang Tuấn
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Sự
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Bá Tùng
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Toshiya Nakahara
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Tống Văn Hải
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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