KTS

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Đường Kon Tum

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

23.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

28.348

Current

23.300

Gap

+21.7%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

38.85%

Kd(1-t)

7.36%

D/(D+E)

61.15%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend6.71%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→17.57B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

17.57B

Growth Rate

6.71%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

28.348

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — KTS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2017

-0.24

High Risk

DSRI

1.250

GMI

1.764

AQI

5.087

SGI

1.858

DEPI

0.000

SGAI

0.887

TATA

-0.076

LVGI

2.102

KTS exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -0.2435, which is well above the manipulation threshold. Despite a relatively strong earnings quality score of 65.3, the high SGI and low revenue quality raise significant red flags regarding sustainability and transparency.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -0.2435 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
SGI of 1.8581 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.
Low eq_margin score of 19.7/100 indicates poor profitability relative to revenue.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 65.3/100 reflects decent overall earnings quality.
Cash conversion and receivables metrics are strong at 100.0/100, indicating effective cash management.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a significant concentration with the largest shareholder holding 15%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The presence of multiple individual shareholders could also lead to fragmented decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly regarding revenue recognition practices and the sustainability of growth. Monitoring future earnings reports and management disclosures will be crucial.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.99

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-1.37

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-19.2%

Volatility

48.2%

Max Drawdown

-50.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

3.77P/E

P/B0.75

P/S0.49

ROE22.8%

ROA9.5%

EPS9988.42

BVPS48544.11

Gross Margin21.9%

Net Margin13.3%

D/E1.23

Current Ratio1.22

Rev Growth-26.1%

Profit Growth41.7%

EV/EBITDA4.11

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

5.1M

Charter Capital

50.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for KTS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Kim Hà Việt

Inst

15.0%

760.500

Đặng Thị Thu Hằng

Indiv

9.9%

500.000

Tạ Ngọc Hương

Indiv

5.0%

251.000

Trần Ngọc Lan

Indiv

4.9%

250.000

Trần Ngọc Tuấn

Indiv

4.9%

246.532

america limited liability company

Inst

4.8%

243.390

Lê Quang Trưởng

Indiv

2.1%

106.301

Trần Ngọc Hiếu

Indiv

1.5%

74.529

Trịnh Văn Xuân

Indiv

0.4%

21.609

Nguyễn Tất Đạt

Indiv

0.2%

10.900

Hồ Minh Tường

Indiv

0.2%

7.626

Công ty Cổ phần Sản xuất - Thương mại Thành Thành Công

Inst

0.1%

6.500

Board & Management

Đặng Thị Thu Hằng9.9%

Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Ngọc Hiếu1.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Cần

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Ngọc Hòa

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thư ký Hội đồng Quản Trị

Nguyễn Thị Thủy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Thái Văn Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Bích Nhi

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Việt Anh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hữu Quảng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Sản xuất và Kỹ thuật

Lê Minh Thông

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Mai Thị Tuyết Nhung

Kế toán trưởng

Top connections

SGN25.0%DTG24.4%WCS23.6%DNM22.7%IDV18.0%SZL16.1%BAX16.1%TIP15.3%MTH13.6%ILB12.8%NCT11.0%GGG9.4%

Computed 12/04/2026