MST

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư MST

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

8.300

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

26.311

Current

8.300

Gap

+217.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

48.48%

Kd(1-t)

6.19%

D/(D+E)

51.52%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

3.980

50%DCF Value

48.641

Blended Intrinsic

26.311

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — MST

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.44

Moderate

DSRI

1.562

GMI

1.784

AQI

0.438

SGI

1.185

DEPI

0.763

SGAI

1.070

TATA

-0.152

LVGI

1.229

The Beneish M-Score of -2.4366 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, but several components such as DSRI (1.5621) and GMI (1.7836) suggest potential issues with revenue recognition and gross margin. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 36.5/100 highlights significant concerns regarding receivables and margin quality.

Red Flags

DSRI of 1.5621 indicates potential issues with inventory management, suggesting overstatement of revenue.
GMI of 1.7836 indicates a declining gross margin which could signal pricing pressure or cost management issues.
Earnings Quality Score of 36.5/100, particularly with receivables and margin metrics at 0.0/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of earnings.

Positive Signals

Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings, which is a positive sign.
Ownership concentration with top shareholders holding significant stakes (8.3% by Nguyễn Thanh Tuyền) could align interests with minority shareholders.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration among individual shareholders, which may lead to governance risks if interests diverge from minority shareholders. However, the presence of multiple shareholders may provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and the sustainability of cash flows. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach, considering potential risks while seeking further clarity on operational performance.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.43

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.12

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+3.7%

Volatility

39.7%

Max Drawdown

-28.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

33.37P/E

P/B0.61

P/S0.47

ROE2.1%

ROA0.9%

EPS188.80

BVPS10297.02

Gross Margin1.2%

Net Margin1.4%

D/E1.72

Current Ratio3.78

Rev Growth18.5%

Profit Growth25.1%

EV/EBITDA87.35

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

113.6M

Charter Capital

1136.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for MST — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

nguyen-thanh-tuyen

Indiv

8.3%

6.3 trieu

Tạ Ngọc Phúc

Indiv

4.9%

887.700

Phan Hoàng Thắng

Indiv

4.7%

1.7 trieu

Nguyễn Trường Phi

Indiv

4.7%

1.7 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Dung

Indiv

4.5%

810.500

Trần Thị Minh Phượng

Indiv

4.4%

1.6 trieu

Trần Tuấn Anh

Indiv

4.4%

790.000

Trần Thị Linh

Indiv

4.3%

4.8 trieu

Phan Thị Thanh Hoài

Indiv

4.0%

1.4 trieu

Phạm Bá Quang

Indiv

3.6%

1.3 trieu

Đoàn Thị Quỳnh Trang

Indiv

3.5%

4.0 trieu

PHẠM HIẾN HOÀNG KHOA

Indiv

3.3%

3.8 trieu

Vũ Thị Minh Trang

Indiv

3.3%

3.7 trieu

nguyen-thanh-mai

Indiv

3.1%

3.5 trieu

Tạ Thị Dinh

Indiv

3.1%

2.1 trieu

Vũ Văn Tràng

Indiv

3.0%

3.4 trieu

Bùi Đức Trường

Indiv

2.9%

3.3 trieu

Dương Quốc Tuấn

Indiv

2.9%

3.3 trieu

Trần Hoàng Anh

Indiv

2.5%

457.500

Nguyễn Tất Phú

Indiv

2.5%

896.500

nguyen-huy-quang

Indiv

2.5%

2.9 trieu

Nguyễn Trọng Huy

Indiv

1.9%

2.2 trieu

Nguyễn Quang Nguyên

Indiv

0.7%

778.426

nguyen-thanh-binh

Indiv

0.3%

107.800

Phan Duy Dũng

Indiv

0.2%

198.000

Nguyễn Đăng Kiên

Indiv

0.1%

165.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Huy Quang2.5%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Phan Duy Dũng0.2%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đăng Kiên0.1%

Kế toán trưởng

Hoàng Văn Minh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phan Thị Làn

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Tống Thế Thuận

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Văn Hưng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Trung Khìn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Bùi Anh Dũng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Ngô Việt Hậu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phùng Xuân Nam

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

DTP19.3%VHH15.0%SFI8.3%VTO8.3%NDF8.1%ABW7.4%CJC6.0%HLT5.9%KSD4.9%DTI3 links VC24.9%MHC4.7%

Computed 12/04/2026