VNVALUEVNVALUE
Updated weekly
Back to Dashboard
Utilities sector

VAV

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần VIWACO
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
35.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
28.936
Current
35.400
Gap
-18.3%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend8.96%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.200
Payout ratio25.4%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.200
Base Growth
8.96%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
28.936
Value Decomposition
24%
76%
Explicit period (24%)Terminal value (76%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VAV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

64
Fair
Accrual Quality
88
Cash Conversion
61
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
28
Revenue Quality
42

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.47
High Risk
DSRI
0.994
GMI
1.459
AQI
4.843
SGI
1.041
DEPI
0.890
SGAI
0.752
TATA
0.031
LVGI
0.983

VAV shows a Beneish M-Score of -0.4734, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well above the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue quality and margin, which could pose risks to future performance.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 63.8/100 indicates potential concerns, especially with a low eq_margin of 28.1/100 and eq_revenue of 41.9/100, suggesting that revenue recognition may not be sustainable.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.4734 is well below the manipulation threshold, indicating a lower risk of financial statement fraud.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top three shareholders holding 89.8% of the company, which may limit minority shareholder influence and increase governance risks.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor VAV's earnings quality metrics and consider engaging with management regarding revenue recognition practices, while also assessing the implications of concentrated ownership on corporate governance.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
2/9
Weak
Z-Score
4.24
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.09
Positive
Composite
51
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+6.2%
Volatility
47.3%
Max Drawdown
-29.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.60P/E
P/B1.95
P/S1.49
ROE22.1%
ROA14.2%
EPS3594.27
BVPS17658.83
Gross Margin22.0%
Net Margin15.5%
D/E0.55
Current Ratio1.80
Rev Growth4.1%
Profit Growth-25.1%
EV/EBITDA5.14
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
48.0M
Charter Capital
480.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VAV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu và Xây dựng Việt Nam
Inst
51.0%
24.5 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Nước Sạch Hà Nội
Inst
23.7%
11.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Nước sạch Sông Đà
Inst
15.1%
7.2 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ đầu tư MB
Inst
4.1%
330.000
Công ty Cổ phần Cơ điện Lạnh
Inst
3.1%
500.000
Nguyễn Anh Việt
Indiv
0.4%
36.080
Board & Management
Cao Hải Tháp
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đinh Hoàng Lân
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Mạnh Hùng
Kế toán trưởng/Giám đốc Tài chính
Trần Thị Kim Oanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Đinh Hữu Cảnh
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Dương Văn Mậu
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Tiến Hưng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Trang
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hữu Tới
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thanh Bình
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →