NDN

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Phát triển Nhà Đà Nẵng

Bất động sảnCT

10.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

29.286

Current

10.400

Gap

+181.6%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

85.21%

Kd(1-t)

6.94%

D/(D+E)

14.79%

WACC

12.61%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

18.842

60%DCF Value

36.249

Blended Intrinsic

29.286

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NDN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

14.86

High Risk

DSRI

0.035

GMI

0.505

AQI

0.903

SGI

21.001

DEPI

0.176

SGAI

0.240

TATA

0.126

LVGI

0.797

The Beneish M-Score of 14.8645 significantly exceeds the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a high likelihood of earnings manipulation. Coupled with a low earnings quality score of 36.4/100, particularly poor cash conversion metrics, this raises substantial concerns about the integrity of NDN's financial reporting.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of 14.8645 indicates likely earnings manipulation.
Earnings quality score of 36.4/100, with cash conversion at only 12.5/100, suggests poor quality of earnings.
SGI of 21.0013 indicates excessive revenue growth compared to industry norms, which may not be sustainable.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests strong management of receivables.
Low DSRI of 0.0347 indicates that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows significant institutional presence with key shareholders holding only 4.0%, which may lead to a lack of accountability and oversight. The presence of a state-owned enterprise (SOE) could also influence corporate governance practices.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider avoiding NDN due to high risks of earnings manipulation and poor earnings quality. A thorough review of financial statements and operational performance is recommended before any investment decision.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

9.45

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.61

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+34.9%

Volatility

25.8%

Max Drawdown

-28.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

4.75P/E

P/B0.65

P/S30.21

ROE14.6%

ROA13.1%

EPS2358.08

BVPS17131.24

Gross Margin39.3%

Net Margin636.1%

D/E0.05

Current Ratio15.41

Rev Growth-52.2%

Profit Growth367.1%

EV/EBITDA46.40

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

71.7M

Charter Capital

716.6B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NDN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Evli Emerging Frontier Fund

Inst

4.0%

1.3 trieu

Ngân Hàng Thương Mại Cổ phần Sài Gòn

Inst

4.0%

1.3 trieu

Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước

State

4.0%

1.3 trieu

Nguyễn Quang Trung

Indiv

3.7%

1.2 trieu

PYN Elite Fund

Inst

3.7%

1.5 trieu

Nguyễn Đình Minh Huy

Indiv

2.3%

1.6 trieu

Nguyễn Quang Minh Khoa

Indiv

2.1%

1.5 trieu

Nguyễn Quang Minh Văn

Indiv

1.7%

1.2 trieu

Mai Thị Thi

Indiv

1.7%

1.2 trieu

Nguyễn Quang Minh Khánh

Indiv

1.4%

1.0 trieu

Công Đoàn Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Phát Triển Nhà Đà Nẵng

Inst

0.6%

403.661

Công Ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Phương Trang

Inst

0.3%

222.318

Lương Thanh Viên

Indiv

0.2%

160.737

Lâm Phụng Tiên

Indiv

0.2%

53.542

Board & Management

Nguyễn Quang Trung8.5%

Tổng Giám đốc/Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Quang Minh Khoa2.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lương Thanh Viên0.2%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lâm Phụng Tiên0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Viết Em

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Lê Duy

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đào Thị Phước

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Dương Thị Thanh Hải

Kế toán trưởng

Cao Thái Hùng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Nhật Thảo

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Lê Thị Anh Trúc

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

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Computed 12/04/2026