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Construction sector

PBP

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Bao bì Dầu khí Việt Nam
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT
12.200
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
77.029
Current
12.200
Gap
+500.0%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
53.08%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.23%
x
D/(D+E)
46.92%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.94%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
22.970
50%DCF Value
131.088
Blended Intrinsic
77.029
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PBP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

66
Fair
Accrual Quality
20
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
5

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-4.09
Low Risk
DSRI
0.245
GMI
1.125
AQI
1.075
SGI
1.136
DEPI
0.822
SGAI
0.874
TATA
-0.253
LVGI
0.855

PBP exhibits a concerning Beneish M-Score of -4.0917, significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation. While the earnings quality score of 65.6 suggests moderate quality, the low accrual score of 19.6 raises questions about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -4.0917 indicates potential earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality score of 19.6/100 for eq_accrual suggests poor earnings sustainability.
Positive Signals
  • Strong cash conversion rate of 100.0/100 indicates effective cash flow management.
  • Ownership by the state at 51.0% may provide stability and support for the company.
Ownership Risk

The significant state ownership at 51.0% may mitigate some risks associated with management decisions, but the concentration of ownership could lead to governance issues and lack of transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor PBP's financial disclosures and consider a cautious approach due to the elevated risk of earnings manipulation, while also leveraging the strengths in cash flow management.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.39
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.03
Positive
Composite
76
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+9.4%
Volatility
19.5%
Max Drawdown
-13.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.19P/E
P/B0.84
P/S0.14
ROE11.7%
ROA5.7%
EPS1696.09
BVPS14588.61
Gross Margin7.3%
Net Margin1.9%
D/E0.88
Current Ratio1.57
Rev Growth13.6%
Profit Growth0.0%
EV/EBITDA2.04
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
4.8M
Charter Capital
48.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng công nghiệp
Sub-industry
Containers & Đóng gói
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PBP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần - Tổng Công ty Phân bón Dầu Khí Cà Mau
State
51.0%
2.4 trieu
Dương Văn Cọp
Indiv
7.3%
352.800
Nguyễn Thị Liên
Indiv
5.3%
255.069
Nguyễn Hữu Kiệm
Indiv
5.0%
238.066
Phạm Duy Khánh
Indiv
4.4%
210.000
Cao Khải Hoàn
Indiv
3.6%
173.495
Lê Quốc Dũng
Indiv
1.5%
70.000
Nguyễn Đức Hạnh
Indiv
0.3%
8.800
Board & Management
Vũ Chí Dương
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trịnh Tiến Sỹ
Phó Giám đốc
Đinh Nhật Dương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Đức Thuận
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thiên Hồng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Trần Như Quỳnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Trung Kiên
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Nhuận
Phó Giám đốc
Lê Cảnh Khánh
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Hoài Phương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Lệ Hằng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Minh Quang
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Computed 12/04/2026
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