BPC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vicem Bao bì Bỉm Sơn

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT

12.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

16.866

Current

12.500

Gap

+34.9%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

52.67%

Kd(1-t)

5.74%

D/(D+E)

47.33%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

14.769

50%DCF Value

18.962

Blended Intrinsic

16.866

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BPC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.83

Low Risk

DSRI

0.877

GMI

0.825

AQI

1.000

SGI

0.994

DEPI

1.104

SGAI

1.244

TATA

-0.027

LVGI

0.942

BPC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.8272, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 80.5 suggests some concerns, particularly with revenue recognition, which scored 0.0/100.

Red Flags

Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates significant issues with revenue recognition.
SGAI at 1.2439 suggests aggressive spending on sales and marketing, which may not translate to revenue growth.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 80.5/100 reflects strong accruals (89.3/100) and cash conversion (100.0/100), indicating good operational efficiency.
Beneish M-Score of -2.8272 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting low risk of earnings manipulation.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam holding 49.0%, which may lead to potential governance issues and conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor revenue recognition practices closely, given the low score in that area, while considering the strong cash conversion metrics as a positive sign for operational health.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.64

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.62

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+47.3%

Volatility

78.7%

Max Drawdown

-29.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

32.82P/E

P/B0.50

P/S0.18

ROE1.5%

ROA0.8%

EPS380.88

BVPS24785.15

Gross Margin11.1%

Net Margin0.5%

D/E0.80

Current Ratio2.22

Rev Growth-0.6%

Profit Growth31.9%

EV/EBITDA17.12

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

3.8M

Charter Capital

38.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng công nghiệp

Sub-industry

Containers & Đóng gói

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BPC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam

Inst

49.0%

1.9 trieu

Nguyễn Hữu Kiệm

Indiv

11.1%

422.500

Lê Công Hùng

Indiv

10.0%

380.000

Đỗ Trọng Tuấn

Indiv

8.6%

328.200

Công ty Xuất nhập khẩu xi măng

Inst

5.7%

216.200

Đỗ Trọng Tân

Indiv

5.3%

200.000

Lê Thị Tâm

Indiv

5.2%

197.000

Lê Thị Thủy

Indiv

1.1%

41.800

Công đoàn Công ty Cổ phần Vicem bao bì Bỉm Sơn

Inst

0.9%

33.300

Mai Viết Dụng

Indiv

0.6%

17.000

Nguyễn Tiến Côi

Indiv

0.3%

10.810

nguyen-thanh-tinh

Indiv

0.3%

10.000

Nguyễn Văn Hùng

Indiv

0.1%

3.800

Board & Management

Đỗ Trọng Tân5.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Mai Viết Dụng0.6%

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thanh Tịnh0.3%

Phó Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Thu Hương

Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trịnh Thị Hiền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Chảng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Minh Đức

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Hương

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trịnh Văn Diễn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Top connections

HT179.7%BTS79.5%BCC2 links HOM71.1%DXV65.8%VTV62.9%TMX59.6%HCT53.9%TXM51.2%HTV50.1%BXH49.0%BBS49.0%

Computed 12/04/2026