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Consumer sector

CMV

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Thương nghiệp Cà Mau
Bán lẻCT
7.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
14.698
Current
7.900
Gap
+86.0%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTBán lẻConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Bán lẻ" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
48.63%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.81%
x
D/(D+E)
51.37%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.10%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF22.76B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
22.76B
Growth Rate
2.10%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
14.698
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CMV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

74
Good
Accrual Quality
82
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
97
Margin Stability
59
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.42
Moderate
DSRI
1.369
GMI
0.936
AQI
0.872
SGI
1.026
DEPI
1.009
SGAI
1.063
TATA
-0.044
LVGI
1.007

The Beneish M-Score of -2.4211 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 73.9 indicates potential concerns, particularly with revenue recognition, which scored 0.0/100.

Red Flags
  • The SGI of 1.0256 indicates a slight increase in sales growth, but the low revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about the sustainability of reported revenues.
  • The AQI of 0.8721 suggests that while accruals are relatively high, the earnings quality is compromised, particularly with a margin score of 58.9/100.
Positive Signals
  • The eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash conversion, suggesting that cash flows from operations are healthy.
  • The significant ownership by institutional investors (67.2% combined) may provide stability and align interests with long-term performance.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership by institutional investors may mitigate risks associated with management decisions; however, the dominance of a single entity (51.0%) could lead to governance issues and lack of minority shareholder protection.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of ownership concentration. A cautious approach is advised, potentially waiting for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
9.48
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.42
Negative
Composite
58
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-17.0%
Volatility
58.0%
Max Drawdown
-32.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.32P/E
P/B0.55
P/S0.03
ROE7.8%
ROA3.8%
EPS1079.94
BVPS14373.52
Gross Margin4.4%
Net Margin0.4%
D/E1.06
Current Ratio1.53
Rev Growth2.6%
Profit Growth71.1%
EV/EBITDA14.22
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
18.2M
Charter Capital
181.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Bán lẻ
Sub-industry
Bán lẻ phức hợp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CMV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Thương Mại Và Dịch Vụ Long Hưng
Inst
51.0%
9.3 trieu
Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam
Inst
16.2%
2.9 trieu
Trương Cẩm Tú
Indiv
4.7%
855.540
Nguyễn Văn Hậu
Indiv
4.3%
789.266
nguyen-thi-viet-anh
Indiv
3.6%
647.419
Thái Trường An
Indiv
1.2%
141.579
nguyen-viet-hung
Indiv
1.0%
173.733
Phan Tiến Dũng
Indiv
0.9%
113.446
Nguyễn Thị Việt Ngọc
Indiv
0.9%
155.736
Trần Chí Hiếu
Indiv
0.6%
110.000
Lưu Hoàng Thống
Indiv
0.6%
108.767
Phù Chí Anh
Indiv
0.5%
100.000
Trần Thị Trúc Linh
Indiv
0.2%
30.456
Nguyễn Tấn Vạn
Indiv
0.2%
20.213
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thị Việt Ánh3.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Thái Trường An1.2%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Việt Ngọc0.9%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Chí Hiếu0.6%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lưu Hoàng Thống0.6%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phù Chí Anh0.5%
Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lâm Quốc Khánh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Tuấn Quỳnh
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Anh Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Khánh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Thị Hiền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Xuân Phát
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Ngô Thế Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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