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Utilities sector

POV

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Xăng dầu Dầu khí Vũng Áng
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
8.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
5.841
Current
8.100
Gap
-27.9%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.89%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS300
Payout ratio32.5%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
300
Base Growth
2.89%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
5.841
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — POV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

44
Weak
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
79
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
26
Revenue Quality
14

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.11
Moderate
DSRI
1.420
GMI
0.857
AQI
1.207
SGI
0.985
DEPI
1.010
SGAI
1.183
TATA
0.000
LVGI
0.948

The Beneish M-Score of -2.1111 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 43.8/100, particularly low scores in receivables and revenue metrics, suggest potential concerns regarding revenue recognition and cash flow sustainability.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 43.8/100, with eq_receivables at 0.0/100 indicating potential issues in revenue recognition.
  • SGAI at 1.1827 suggests aggressive spending on sales and marketing, which may not translate into proportional revenue growth.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1111 is below the manipulation threshold, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • High eq_accrual score of 99.9/100 suggests strong accrual quality, which is a positive indicator for earnings reliability.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top three institutional shareholders holding 76.5% of shares, which may limit minority shareholder influence and raise governance concerns.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and cash flow metrics, particularly focusing on receivables management. It may be prudent to approach this stock with caution, considering the elevated risks associated with earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
10.53
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.18
Negative
Composite
35
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-1.1%
Volatility
38.0%
Max Drawdown
-19.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
9.38P/E
P/B0.52
P/S0.02
ROE5.6%
ROA2.3%
EPS829.86
BVPS14953.38
Gross Margin3.5%
Net Margin0.2%
D/E1.32
Current Ratio0.88
Rev Growth-1.5%
Profit Growth3.3%
EV/EBITDA3.31
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
12.5M
Charter Capital
125.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for POV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam
Inst
56.5%
7.1 trieu
Tổng Công ty Khoáng sản và Thương mại Hà Tĩnh
Inst
10.0%
1.3 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Kinh doanh LPG Việt Nam
Inst
10.0%
1.2 trieu
Nguyễn Trung Kiên
Indiv
2.1%
262.110
Board & Management
Nguyễn Trung Kiên2.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Đinh Hồng Long
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Đức Duy
Kế toán trưởng
Trần Tiến Đại
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Minh Châu
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Thu Huyền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Hồng Minh
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thế Quỳnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vương Dũng Hoàng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Nam Hải
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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